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Moderation ensues as a return to normal begins

January 13th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:23 AM
This morning we can see the makings of what will be a powerful storm for this weekend as a strong Sub Tropical Disturbance now enters the western Gulf Coast. This storm will intensify and drive towards the Mid Atlantic coastal waters over the next few days. However, as the Sub Tropical jet stream becomes [...]

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Snow flurries today. More for the weekend?

January 12th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:07 AM
This morning, a cold front is moving through the northern Mid Atlantic with scattered flurries throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area. The cold front associated with these flurries is not very well defined and the majority of the cold air advection and isolated precipitation is being driven by an upper level [...]

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Premium Content Preview: Don’t let your guard down

December 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

This is a preview of the premium discussions that will be available with premium membership.
7:50 AM
The storm for New Years Eve through Saturday has me concerned for a much larger impact for the northern Mid Atlantic than the majority of the guidance suggest. The issue I have with the model guidance handling of these various [...]

Tags: blizzard, california coast, clue, extent, gfs, hpc, interaction, last thursday, Mid Atlantic, mid levels, Model Guidance, new years eve, Polar Jet Stream, rain storm, temperatures, thursday afternoon, thursday night, Tropical Disturbance, west coast, what this means. Technical Discussions Closed

Warm conditions return to the Mid Atlantic

October 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:46 AM
The ridge axis for the high pressure system over the Southeast moved over the northern Mid Atlantic last night, providing clear skies and light winds. As a result, temperatures were able to fall into the 30’s and 40’s this morning. However, the ridge axis is now off the New Jersey coast and as a [...]

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Cold Air Returns, But Not For Long

March 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:18 AM
The end of the week is expected to be rather quiet, but rather chilly for the middle of March. A strong cold front will exit the forecast area on Wednesday night with strong Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northern Plains. At 500 MB, a strong upper low located at 50 [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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The Only Consistency In The Models Is Inconsistency

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
I’ve been getting a lot of emails today about the period from Sunday through Thursday. Actually, I’ve been getting a lot of emails over the past 4 days about this period. I want to just send an apology if you didn’t get a response, consider this post your response.
My confidence for the period of [...]

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Storm Or No Storm, That Is The Question

January 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:52 AM
What can I say, I’m going to misuse that quote for the rest of my life.
So, you are probably looking at the model guidance over the past 24 hours and asking yourself what the heck is going on. If you want an idea on how well model guidance is handling the potential for Sunday [...]

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Cold Turkey, But Not As Cold As Today

November 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The pattern is going into a state of significant amplification throughout much of North America and Northern Hemisphere. I want to state right off the bat that I agree with HPC that the ECMWF solution from 00Z is a strong outlier so I threw the model out. Interestingly, the ECMWF this fall has not been [...]

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