Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
7:50 PM
The forecasting of the major Nor Easter that impacted the northern Mid Atlantic from November 11 through November 14 can best be described as very difficult and in the end the model guidance was not very helpful.
The potential for the storm was showing up on the model guidance by November 8th as then Hurricane [...]
5:00 AM
Over the past several days, I have been tracking the approach of then hurricane Ida, which was entrained into a Sub Tropical disturbance and is now phasing with a Polar disturbance over the Mid Atlantic coast. Model guidance has been wildly inconsistent in the forecasting of this storm, however the forecast at NY NJ [...]
9:41 AM
As discussed yesterday, the majority of the model guidance and ensemble guidance came into strong support for keeping at that time Tropical Storm Ida, separate from the trough over the eastern United States and left to wander the Gulf of Mexico and eventually die off due to consistent up welling in the Gulf of [...]
11:20 AM
Tropical Storm Erika continues to weaken late this morning as strong southwesterly shear has sufficiently disrupted the low level circulation. Sustained winds have fallen off from 60 mph to 40 mph and the pressure has now risen to 1008 MB.
There is a pretty wide range in the models as far as solutions for [...]
4:45 AM
Tropical Storm Erika continues to strengthen this early morning. Tropical Storm Erika has 60 mph winds and continues to remain stationary to the east of the northern Leeward Islands. The fact that Erika is key here as wind shear continues to weaken. Clearly, model guidance did not in any way expect Erika to flat [...]
9:40 PM
There is a lot of speculation on what to expect this weekend. Several model guidance now suggest that a tropical system, possibly a hurricane or tropical storm will impact much of the forecast area. The problem? The tropical disturbance that will lead to all the havoc this weekend is yet to exhibit a low [...]
7:37 AM
The tropical Atlantic continues to heat up this morning with the first named storm of the season formed and continuing to develop and tropical depression 3 on the way to forming!
Tropical Storm Ana is located at 14.6N, 46.8W and moving to the west at 16 mph. Ana has sustained winds of 40 mph and [...]
7:02 AM
Shear has weakened over the past 24 hours over the Caribbean as the upper low that was impacting the region has moved into Central America. For the most part, upper level winds remain strong enough to inhibit development throughout much of the Caribbean however I expect that the wind shear will briefly abate by [...]
6:38 AM
There have been no new developments over the past 24 hours for the Tropical Atlantic. Strong shear remains in place throughout the Caribbean Sea as an upper level trough remains in place. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Mississippi Valley is driving a northeasterly and easterly winds throughout the Gulf of Mexico, which would shear [...]
9:27 AM
A weakening upper low over the eastern Caribbean continues to produce shear throughout much of the Caribbean this morning that will continue over the next 48 hours. No tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours throughout much of the Atlantic as well. Tropical disturbance coming off the African coast continue to fall [...]
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