Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
11:43 PM
While everyone has been debating about the trends of models (yes, there IS a cold “correction” to the guidance), what has me more interested is what is happening right in front of our noses.
There are several trends over the past few hours that I want to point out.
The first image is the [...]
6:26 PM
I don’t think anyone can argue that the model guidance has warmed. There has been little shift in the actual storm track, but the low pressure systems that impact the forecast area appear to have stronger WAA at the mid levels are the very least. There is a lot to consider here, but I [...]
9:14 AM
Round One:
I thought of that cause I have Rocky II on in the back ground, but I think it is appropriety given the situation.
Precipitation is racing through Illinois and entering Indian. This area of precipitation is producing light snow and is a heck of a lot more consolidated than any model guidance has [...]
The main focus for severe weather will be along the stationary front over the Gulf Coast. A strong disturbance as the mid level will interact with the stationary front to produce showers and strong to severe thunderstorms. The additional wind shear combined with isentropic lifting will lead to thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large hail, wind [...]
The bulk of the severe weather will be concentrated around the Mid West, Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and eventually the Mid Atlantic.
A trough will continue to dig into the eastern United States with a series of strong mid level disturbances moving through the areas described above. The strong disturbances will enhance the thunderstorms [...]
The north-central Plains, Mid West, and Great Lakes will be very active today with severe weather. There are a lot of different mid level disturbances enhancing showers and thunderstorms over the region this morning including a strong MCS over the Dakotas. However, the overall theme with the severe weather threat through the evening hours will [...]
The focus on severe weather today will be over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and produce wide spread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms. The upper level dynamics will improve and wind shear will increase as a short wave over the northern [...]
A strong MCS moving southeast from North Dakota will bring the potential for severe weather for much of the northern Plains and Mid West. As the MCS moves south this morning, the out flow boundaries from the system will move ahead to the south and east, which will lead to the development of additional super-cell [...]
Today will not be an very active day for severe weather, however heavy rain is a different story.
The remnants of Dolly continue to produce heavy rain throughout the southern Plains and Mid West this morning and will continue to do so through the afternoon hours. The showers and thunderstorms will remain below severe levels, however [...]
The majority of the severe weather will be focused over the northern Plains today. A strong disturbance from western Canada will move towards the northern Plains this evening as a cold front at the surface. A strong low level jet at 850 MB will intensify and transport significant moisture and heat into the region. In [...]
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