Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
11:43 PM
While everyone has been debating about the trends of models (yes, there IS a cold “correction” to the guidance), what has me more interested is what is happening right in front of our noses.
There are several trends over the past few hours that I want to point out.
The first image is the [...]
The main threat for severe weather will remain over the southern Plains as a strong upper low and jet maximum produces strong vertical wind shear over the region. Although the low level clouds may inhibit instability initially over the region, by the afternoon the cap should be broken with a significant threat for large hail, [...]
The bulk of the severe weather will be concentrated around the Mid West, Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and eventually the Mid Atlantic.
A trough will continue to dig into the eastern United States with a series of strong mid level disturbances moving through the areas described above. The strong disturbances will enhance the thunderstorms [...]
The north-central Plains, Mid West, and Great Lakes will be very active today with severe weather. There are a lot of different mid level disturbances enhancing showers and thunderstorms over the region this morning including a strong MCS over the Dakotas. However, the overall theme with the severe weather threat through the evening hours will [...]
The focus on severe weather today will be over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and produce wide spread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms. The upper level dynamics will improve and wind shear will increase as a short wave over the northern [...]
Today will not be an very active day for severe weather, however heavy rain is a different story.
The remnants of Dolly continue to produce heavy rain throughout the southern Plains and Mid West this morning and will continue to do so through the afternoon hours. The showers and thunderstorms will remain below severe levels, however [...]
The combination of a strong 500 MB trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a stationary front will produce favorable conditions for severe weather from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast today.
Over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, a weakening MCS this morning will move through these region with heavy rain, strong [...]
The severe weather today will be focused over the Mid West and Ohio Valley today where a stationary front combined with a series of mid level disturbance will support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms. A strong MCS over the Mid-West will further enhance the low level dynamics via additional lifting from out flow [...]
A rough night continues for central Illinois and western Indiana. The line of thunderstorms has begun to become enhanced by an 850 MB low level jet and old meso-boundaries just to the south of the storms. Meanwhile, upper level winds and the jet maximum is running paralle to the showers and thunderstorms, which is supporting [...]
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