NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Upper low to bring light to moderate snow through this evening

7:49 AM
A strong upper low over northern Virginia this morning will move through New Jersey this afternoon with bands of light to moderate snow throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  This upper low will support the intensification of an area of low pressure to the east of Monmouth County, New Jersey which [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Storm exits as another threat develops for end of the week

7:30 AM
A strong area of low pressure continues to rapidly deepen off eastern Long Island as the low pressure system deepens to a 994 MB low pressure system.  The majority of the precipitation with this storm has now exited into New England and the northwestern Atlantic, leading to just a few lingering showers and slow [...]

Major Storm on the horizon, what this means for the pattern

7:37 AM
A major storm is showing up on the model guidance over the past three model runs.  What does this storm mean for the pattern develop for the rest of the winter and what potential does this storm have for snow, ice, and rain for the northern Mid Atlantic?
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 92%;Heat [...]

Evening Thoughts- storm threat increases for Friday

10:15 PM
Tonight I’ve been going over the various models from the 12Z and 18 Z guidance.  First I want to touch on the storm potential for Thursday night into Friday.
The 18Z models are a good indicator of where models are trending or adjusting to.  Both the 18Z GFS and NAM produced a stronger and more [...]

Coastal close call for late tonight

7:12 AM
A strong disturbance over the Ohio Valley is gaining strength and diving southeast towards the Mid Atlantic coast this morning.  This disturbance will spawn a coastal low late tonight off the Delaware coast that will have some minor direct and significant indirect impacts on the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.
Through today, clouds [...]

Coastal low brings additional rain and wind

5:15 AM
This morning, an area of low pressure is developing off the North Carolina coast under the influence of an impressive upper level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley.  This coastal low along with an inverted trough will bring periods of heavy rainfall to much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this afternoon [...]

Evening Thoughts- Putting the forecast together

10:09 PM
I’ve been breaking down all the data this evening to nail down my “final” forecast on what I believe will transpire over the next three days with Tropical Storm Danny.  In short, I think we are at a point where Tropical Storm Danny is not the main feature in this pattern but an accessory [...]

Tropical Weather Update For Tuesday, August 25 2009

4:45 AM
The tropical disturbance to the north of the Leeward Islands continues to organize into a healthy tropical system.  The low level circulation is still poorly organized, however there are signs of the low level structure becoming better organized as convection continues to develop.  The upper level environment also continues to improve as the upper [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Tuesday, August 18 2009

4:45 AM
Hurricane Bill continues to grow and become impressive this morning.  Last night, Hurricane Bill reached Category 2 status with 100 mph and is expected to continue strengthen over the next 48 hours to a major hurricane.
Hurricane Bill will continue to grow in size as well as bands of convection continue to develop and rotate [...]