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9:51 PM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails through the day about pattern changes, storm questions, and pretty much everything in between. First, I’ll answer one question I can share with everyone. Yes, I really am a Mets fan. So, lets get to the rest of the questions.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 46%;Heat Index: [...]
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7:50 AM
The storm for New Years Eve through Saturday has me concerned for a much larger impact for the northern Mid Atlantic than the majority of the guidance suggest. The issue I have with the model guidance handling of these various [...]
7:45 AM
I have a lot of information to go over this morning so get your coffee or tea and get ready for a lengthy read.
This morning, the water vapor satellite picture shows a developing and energetic Sub Tropical Disturbance about to interact with a strong Polar disturbance racing south along the eastern Rockies. Eventually these [...]
7:28 AM
This morning, high pressure is the dominant player over much of the northern Mid Atlantic with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 10’s over the interior and lower 20’s to lower 30’s along the coast. Naturally, the urban areas of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan are the warmest this morning. [...]
4:45 AM
The life of Erika may not last for too much longer. Erika continues to remain very disorganized this morning with a low level circulation that appears to be disintegrating. Erika still continues to produce strong convection around the poorly defined center of rotation, however strong shear from the southwest continues to keep the majority [...]
4:45 AM
Tropical Storm Erika continues to strengthen this early morning. Tropical Storm Erika has 60 mph winds and continues to remain stationary to the east of the northern Leeward Islands. The fact that Erika is key here as wind shear continues to weaken. Clearly, model guidance did not in any way expect Erika to flat [...]
5:15 AM
This morning, model guidance has come into strong agreement on exactly what to expect from Tropical Storm Danny and the interaction with the deep trough over the Southeast. As discussed last night, the best way to view Danny’s impact on the forecast area is to consider Danny as a Nor’ Easter rather than a [...]
7:00 AM
A storm is brewing off the Carolina coasts this morning as precipitation slowly pushes north and east towards the coastal sections of the forecast area.
This morning, the upper level disturbance associated with the coastal low is maturing into a well developed extratropical system aloft. However, the coastal low itself is still rather disorganized with [...]
9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]
7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end. So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way. However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area.
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]
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