NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic cold in place, snow creeping north

9:23 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning!  So let’s get to it!
The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast.  The [...]

Southern New Jersey has potential for more impressive snowfall

9:18 PM
Important develops are starting to come together that has the potential to produce a significantly higher snowfall total that I or anyone else originally thought.
The radar this evening is showing signs of pushing slightly further north than the guidance has been forecasting.  My focus is over the southern Ohio Valley where an area of snow [...]

Very cold day on tap for northern Mid Atlantic

7:50 AM
In case you haven’t realized from the gusty winds from last night, Arctic air has arrived for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  Temperatures this morning are in the single digits and teens over many interior locations and mid to upper 10’s along the coast with a gusty northwesterly wind around 10 [...]

Additional thoughts on this weekend

7:40 AM
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I really put the majority of my time in trying to figure out how to handle the evolution of the storm for this weekend, so I didn’t spend much time looking at long range drivers like the stratosphere and MJO progression, but rest assured that no changes have occurred to deviate from the [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Heavy rain for tomorrow morning, winter returns this week

9:26 AM
There is no doubt that heavy rain is on the way as a significant surge of moisture races north ahead of a powerful cold front.
Clouds will continue to increase and lower through the day as a strong southwesterly flow from the surface to mid levels pushes a warm and moist air mass into the [...]

Additional thoughts on tomorrow morning

8:10 AM
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The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast.  However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest [...]

Light snow likely with first impulse

9:26 PM
This evening, the movement of high pressure into the Atlantic highlights an environment not favorable for a significant snowfall over the northern Mid Atlantic.  Temperatures, although cold, are still hovering around freezing along the coast.  As the surface high pressure system slides to the east, winds will back to the south leading to a [...]

Evening Thoughts: The risk of a stronger, more defined coastal low

11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front.  The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario.  One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]

Coastal storm comes to an end

6:45 AM
The coastal storm that has battered much of the New Jersey coast with significant flooding and has produced heavy rain along much of the coast is starting to wind down.  An inverted trough extending from the surface low pressure east of North Carolina continues to enhance low level forcing over much of the northern [...]