NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Preliminary Storm Recap

4:10 PM
Another round of rainfall is expected tonight with this storm, however the worst conditions are over.
The storm developed initially as a frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast.  As a strong upper low started to drive towards the Mississippi Valley, the low and eventually mid level winds began to veer to the southeast off [...]

Rainy weekend on the way

8:00 AM
An area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast this morning is expected to intensify and slowly move north towards the New Jersey coast over the next three days.  This low pressure system is expected to produce heavy rainfall, strong winds, and the potential for some coastal flooding along the New Jersey coast [...]

Significant flooding event expected for this weekend

4:25 PM
The storm is starting to organize over the Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast.  The model guidance at this point is in very strong agreement for a widespread heavy rainfall starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing on through Sunday morning with rainfall amounts by Monday morning ranging from 2 inches to as much as 5.5 inches [...]

A quiet weekend ahead, however storm threat grows for Monday night

7:42 AM
As high pressure brings dry conditions and clear skies to the northern Mid Atlantic, a moisture loaded storm is brewing over the Southeast.  This time the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas will not have to worry about the developments along the Gulf Coast as the strong low pressure that impacted the region [...]

Another significant snowfall on the way

8:14 AM
Here we go again!  Another major winter storm has a target for the northern Mid Atlantic with the potential for another one to two feet of snow for many locations in the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area along with very strong winds and near zero visibility for Wednesday morning.
The water vapor satellite [...]

Complicated and intense winter storm on the way

8:10 AM
I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I’ve had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting [...]

More thoughts on this storm

8:13 AM

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 54%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 20°F;Pressure: 30.33 in.;

Keeping an eye on the trends

8:57 AM
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The one feature this morning, that I discussed briefly in the public post this morning can be seen very clearly on the IR and water vapor images.
Note the cooling cloud tops over the Ohio Valley that is racing towards the northern Mid Atlantic.  This area of cooling is the direct result of [...]

MJO and Stratosphere point to active February

7:50 AM
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Stratospheric temperatures continue to rise steadily this morning with much of the atmospheric layer from 1 MB to 70 MB now averaging above normal.  The warming at 1 M is starting to slow some as the temperatures approach record highs, however model guidance from the ECMWF suggest another period of warming is on [...]

MJO on the move and a return of a real wintery threat showing up

10:05 AM
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Over the past three weeks, the 500 MB pattern has been generally unfavorable for any significant winter storms for a variety of reasons.  At first, the overwhelming strength of the negative NAO suppressed any potential for Sub Tropical disturbances to interact with the cold air at place, leading to a cold and dry [...]