Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
8:10 AM
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As I’ve been discussing for the past several days, no feature is an island to itself in the atmosphere. As such, I’ve been keeping an eye of the developments of the stratosphere and the MJO to get a handle on where the pattern is going from this point. This morning I will focus [...]
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7:50 AM
The majority of next week will feature relatively mild conditions compared to the past several weeks, however the mild stretch will not last long as a repeat of what happened in late November is starting to unfold.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 74%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 30.15 in.;
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9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]
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8:40 AM
The medium range guidance is suggesting a pattern break down after this weekend, but the question is if this is a pattern reload or pattern collapse or even if the warm up is as strong as suggested. When the models get crazy, it’s time to go back to what really drives the weather.
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9:45 AM
Over the past several weeks I have been strongly hinting at a cold start to December. The various indicators I’ve been looking at to make these statements include the Stratospheric anomalies of late, the development of the MJO state, and the growth of snow cover over much of Alaska and northwestern Canada.
As the models [...]
9:36 PM
A weakening cold front is approaching this evening with scattered showers over much of Pennsylvania and central New York. The cold front will continue to slowly move through the region over the next 24 hours.
The surface cold front is moving out ahead of the upper level trough, which will place the front under [...]
9:13 PM
There is a lot of action going on that I will discuss tonight. Specifically I will touch on the development of Hurricane Fred and what to expect with the coastal low off the Mid Atlantic coast over the next 66 hours.
Fred became a major hurricane today with sustained winds of around 115 mph, which [...]
9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]
7:37 PM
Eventually the model guidance was going to have to come to grips with the fact that the overall pattern is a fast, progressive pattern. As a result, the idea of a storm sitting just off the coast for several days as seen by some guidance yesterday is quickly losing favor.
I don’t have too [...]
8:57 AM
The overall pattern for the end of this week will be pretty active, but will be influenced by the collapse of the 50/50 low and the overall evolution of the higher latitude 500 MB pattern.
First, let’s discuss the up coming rain storm for the forecast area. The complete collapse of the negative NAO [...]
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