NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Preliminary Storm Recap

4:10 PM
Another round of rainfall is expected tonight with this storm, however the worst conditions are over.
The storm developed initially as a frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast.  As a strong upper low started to drive towards the Mississippi Valley, the low and eventually mid level winds began to veer to the southeast off [...]

Significant flooding event expected for this weekend

4:25 PM
The storm is starting to organize over the Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast.  The model guidance at this point is in very strong agreement for a widespread heavy rainfall starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing on through Sunday morning with rainfall amounts by Monday morning ranging from 2 inches to as much as 5.5 inches [...]

More thoughts on this storm

8:13 AM

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 54%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 20°F;Pressure: 30.33 in.;

Evening Thoughts- fine tuning my thoughts

9:58 PM
As expected, the models are waffling a bit and have trended north and then south.  The latest 00Z NAM appears to be trending south as well, but the let’s look at what if anything has changed in the set up leading up to this storm.
First and foremost, the Sub Tropical disturbance is very [...]

Arctic cold in place, snow creeping north

9:23 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning!  So let’s get to it!
The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast.  The [...]

Southern New Jersey has potential for more impressive snowfall

9:18 PM
Important develops are starting to come together that has the potential to produce a significantly higher snowfall total that I or anyone else originally thought.
The radar this evening is showing signs of pushing slightly further north than the guidance has been forecasting.  My focus is over the southern Ohio Valley where an area of snow [...]

Moderation ensues as a return to normal begins

7:23 AM
This morning we can see the makings of what will be a powerful storm for this weekend as a strong Sub Tropical Disturbance now enters the western Gulf Coast.  This storm will intensify and drive towards the Mid Atlantic coastal waters over the next few days.  However, as the Sub Tropical jet stream becomes [...]

Light snow likely with first impulse

9:26 PM
This evening, the movement of high pressure into the Atlantic highlights an environment not favorable for a significant snowfall over the northern Mid Atlantic.  Temperatures, although cold, are still hovering around freezing along the coast.  As the surface high pressure system slides to the east, winds will back to the south leading to a [...]

Coastal low brings additional rain and wind

5:15 AM
This morning, an area of low pressure is developing off the North Carolina coast under the influence of an impressive upper level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley.  This coastal low along with an inverted trough will bring periods of heavy rainfall to much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this afternoon [...]

Mid Morning Updates- the beginning of a cool pattern

9:30 AM
There is plenty of moisture to the west of the Mid Atlantic, however the movement of the rainfall continues to move from southwest to northeast or basically from the Ohio Valley into western New York.
The upper level pattern this morning has a strong Southeast ridge in place with plenty of dry air over much [...]