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Tag Archive for 'level moisture'

An overview of mesoscale banding and the impacts on snowstorms

11:30 AM
Through this winter one of the major impacts that has significantly impacted snow fall totals is the development of mesoscale snow banding within the precipitation shield.  The impact of such banding has produced staggering snowfall gradients throughout the region and has created significant impacts on many locations this winter.
Mesoscale banding can have several different [...]

Complicated and intense winter storm on the way

8:10 AM
I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I’ve had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting [...]

Winter cold returns. Will snow follow?

8:14 AM
In case you don’t know, the sustained cold pattern is here and it is not going to leave any time soon.  Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 20’s over the interior and lower to mid 30’s along the coast, and those temperatures will not be moving far to reach the afternoon [...]

Be thankful for the warm conditions, winter is on the way

2:48 PM
The relatively warm conditions that the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas have experienced and will continue to experience up until Thanksgiving, better be enjoyed to the highest degree because significant changes are on the way.
The last time I was able to post several days ago, I detailed my ideas on what to [...]

A quiet week ahead

8:58 AM
Sorry for the late update.  I don’t know why, but Sunday’s always seem to be the day where I sleep the most.  I promise that won’t be an issue for winter storms though.  Those storms are like caffeine for me.
The water vapor this morning shows us that the strong Polar/Sub Tropical phased jet stream [...]

Models trend back to drier conditions for the weekend

7:04 AM
I have to wonder after looking at the guidance over the past three days if this is going to be a theme for the winter to follow?  Model guidance took a big jump back away from the upper low, heavy rain event for Sunday.  I was originally skeptical of this solution in the first [...]

Coastal low brings additional rain and wind

5:15 AM
This morning, an area of low pressure is developing off the North Carolina coast under the influence of an impressive upper level disturbance over the Tennessee Valley.  This coastal low along with an inverted trough will bring periods of heavy rainfall to much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this afternoon [...]

A series of cold fronts followed by a tranquil weekend of weather

5:15 AM
A series of disturbances and cold fronts will rotate through the Mid Atlantic over the next two days, providing the region with plenty of cloud cover and scattered showers.  However, by Friday night, the upper level pattern will take a significant shift towards much drier conditions as a ridge builds over the Ohio Valley. [...]

Breaking down the water vapor satellite image

9:36 AM
Through the winter one of the most important tools I like to use in what many call “NOW-CASTING” is the water vapor satellite image.  Don’t get me wrong, surface observations and radar data is very important as well, but the water vapor satellite pictures really lets me tie everything together very nicely.
Now let’s take [...]

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day

5:15 AM
A slow moving cold front, an intensifying trough, and some upper level moisture from Hurricane Bill will combine to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy downpours through early Sunday morning.
To the left is the 700 MB upper level map for this afternoon via the NAM model.  The vortex over the Atlantic [...]



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