4:45 AM

The majority of the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning.

A strong upper low over the central Atlantic is producing shear throughout much of the Atlantic and preventing any development over the next 48 hours.

A deep trough off the East coast will also produce southwesterly upper level shear throughout the western Atlantic.

A ridge will build over much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing much more favorable conditions.  However, no disturbance is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico to take advantage of favorable conditions.  An upper level disturbance over the Caribbean is also expected to inhibit development through the next 48 hours as well.

4:45 AM

There is a slight uptick in activity over the Tropical Atlantic this morning.  The most obvious area of disturbed weather is over the central Tropical Atlantic where a strong disturbance is organizing.  This disturbance is producing a significant amount of convection around a developing low level center of circulation.  Upper level winds will continue to be favorable for development over the next 48 hours, and a tropical depression may develop out of this disturbance.

Meanwhile, the disturbance to the east of the Bahamas is actually the remnants of Hurricane Fred.  I don ‘t expect any development out of this system, however a few showers and thunderstorms will impact the Bahamas and eventually southern Florida in the next few days.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains quiet as a strong upper low over the Mississippi Valley will continue to produce shear over the Gulf of Mexico and import dry air into the region, two ingredients deadly to any tropical system.  Meanwhile, a strong upper low also dominates the Caribbean with strong shear throughout the region.

4:45 AM

Strong westerly and southwesterly shear conditions to dominate much of the Tropical Atlantic this morning.

We’ll start in the Gulf of Mexico where an upper low over the southern Mississippi Valley is focusing a strong jet stream from southwest to northeast across much of the Gulf.  As a result, dry air is building into the western half of the Gulf of Mexico while strong southwesterly shear has a strong influence over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This environment is not favorable for tropical development through the next 48 hours if not longer.

An impressive upper low is developing over the central Caribbean and will slowly push west towards the western Caribbean over the next 48 hours.  This upper low is producing strong shear from the northeast over the western Caribbean and southwesterly shear over the central and eastern Caribbean.  However, the upper low is producing a significant amount of showers and thunderstorms over much of the region.  Flash flooding and mud slides will be a concern to many locations around the region.

Over the central Atlantic, the remnants of Fred continue to slow spin to the west with little sign of tropical development.  I think it is safe to say that the remnants of Fred is well on the way to being a cold core low pressure system.

Finally, a deep trough over the eastern Atlantic will inhibit development off the African coast over the next 48 hours.  This trough will produce southwesterly shear that will rip apart any disturbance exiting off the African coast.

4:45 AM

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning.  The remnants of Fred is looking more and more cold-core by the hour and is certainly not showing signs of any rapid development.  As the remnants drifts to the west, a strong trough over the western Atlantic will draw the remnants to the north and then northeast over time.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains quiet as a deep trough dominates the Gulf of Mexico and strong shear remains over the Caribbean.  No tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours.

4:45 AM

The remnants of Fred continues to track to fight back, however the future of this disturbance and the one further to the east have a rather impressive road block to the west in the form of a deep trough over the western Atlantic.

Showers and thunderstorms have once again fired up on the northeastern quadrant of what was the center of Fred.  Actually, the fact that there is so much dry air wrapping around this low pressure system makes we me think that we have a hybrid low pressure system forming over the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, a disturbance just to the west of the Cape Verde Island is showing some signs of development as convection continues to develop and expand.  Upper level winds are marginally favorable for further development, however any development will be slow to develop going forward.

A deep trough has dug into the Gulf of Mexico and has pushed dry air into much of the region, thus limiting any threat of tropical development.

Basically no tropical development is expected over the next 48 hours throughout the Atlantic.