NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

SNOW AND RAIN MAP THROUGH THIS EVENING

6:24 AM
Forecast details on the way, but I wanted to get this map out as soon as possible.  The storm has tracked slightly closer to the coast, leading to changes in the forecast.

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 33°F;Humidity: 86%;Heat Index: 33°F;Wind Chill: 23°F;Pressure: 29.6 in.;

UPDATED SNOW MAP

7:05 PM
This new snow map is for tonight through Friday night.  The slight changes in the map are based on better data to focus the best mesoscale forcing for this storm, which I will discuss tonight in the live updates.  Otherwise, my thoughts have not changed from this morning.

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 39°F;Humidity: 86%;Heat [...]

00Z Models Preliminary Thoughts

11:05 PM
The 00Z guidance confirmed my suspicion that the 12Z guidance was not handling the development of the 700 MB upper low correctly.
At this time,this storm is clearly going to have a major  impact on the entire northern Mid Atlantic.  While I likely will have to adjust some features on the snowfall map to the [...]

Verification Analysis Of The Pre Christmas Blizzard of December 2009

6:00 PM
Now that the winter storm is over, it is time to see how I did with this storm.  The forecast analysis appeared to be a picture of two worlds.  Over the interior, I feel I did poorly which I will discuss what went wrong.  Meanwhile, the forecast along the coast could not have been [...]

A perfect 48 hours of weather

8:53 AM
A week disturbance is moving through New England and the Hudson Valley this morning, however this disturbance will have little impact on the northern Mid Atlantic.  With little in the way of moisture in the atmosphere, no showers are expected with this disturbance, but a wind shift from the southwest to northwest will result [...]

Observed Rainfall Amounts Through Sunday

8:11 AM
The models over the past several days had been advertising a rather significant rainfall event for the forecast area.  The observations from the past two storms are in and here is the combined precipitation amounts from these storms.
I made a map based on the official National Weather Service Observations.  The heaviest rainfall occurred along [...]

Nor’ Easter stalls over New Jersey

2:30 PM
The upper low associated with the coastal storm today appears to be slightly stronger than expected.  As a result, the coastal low has now moved into south-central New Jersey and is expected to stall over central New Jersey over the next 24 hours.
The 850 MB low has matured to a point where the low [...]

The best weather of the season continues through next week

5:25 AM
If you enjoy dry conditions, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures; then this stretch of weather conditions is perfect for you.  If you don’t, well there’s always the up coming winter.
The pattern is currently set up and will remain set up through next week to support high pressure to the north and west of the [...]

What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal.  Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall.  While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

Heavy rain and severe weather a significant threat

7:30 AM
The forecast for today through tonight is best described as significantly complicated and potentially very active.  The main theme is basically the progression of the warm front currently over southwesterly Pennsylvania through eastern Virginia.  I want to start with the fact that the surface low pressure system is further north and weaker than forecasted [...]