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Thoughts, Theories, and The Future of this Pattern

September 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

1:30 PM
I want to start this post by saying that what I am about to write is a theory, an unproven theory at that, which has been rattling around in my brian for the past several days.
As we all know, the Tropical Atlantic season has been less than stellar with very few tropical systems impacting [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, anomalies, atlantic basin, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, boundary layers, Bridgeport, celsius, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, cpc, few days, Freehold, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf Stream, hail, Hartford, heat energy, heavy rain, Islip, key point, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, maps, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, sst, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tropical systems, unproven theory, upper level winds, uptick, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, Allentown PA, amounts, anomalies, anomaly, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic city nj, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, bridgeport ct, canada, Citi Field, coast, coastal waters, cold, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, continuous onslaught, convection, convective, Disturbance, east, enhancement, Examiner, explaination, explanations, extremes, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freehold nj, front, greenland, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, hightstown nj, interaction, Islip, islip ny, Jets, jfk, latitude, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, magnitude, map, maps, Mets, Mexico, mid, millville nj, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, moisture, nao, new brunswick nj, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, newark nj, normal, normals, north, northe, Northeast, norwich ct, Ocean, Ohio, orientation, pa 1, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia pa, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation anomalies, precipitation events, precipitations, radar, Rainfall, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, severe weather, showers, south, southe, specifics, stratosphere, Summer, surfaces, Sussex, sussex nj, synoptic, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tornado outbreaks, tornadoes, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Heavy rain and severe weather a significant threat

June 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The forecast for today through tonight is best described as significantly complicated and potentially very active. The main theme is basically the progression of the warm front currently over southwesterly Pennsylvania through eastern Virginia. I want to start with the fact that the surface low pressure system is further north and weaker than forecasted [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, baseball, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, central Pennsylvania, Citi Field, city metro, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, cool air, Delaware, discussion, Disturbance, downpours, east, eastern virginia, elevation, elevations, evenings, exiting, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, game, games, Great Lakes, guidance, gusts, hail, Hartford, heavy downpour, heavy rain, high, isentropic, Islip, jet stream, Jets, level jet, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, metros, Mets, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moist air, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, northern, northern suburbs, Northwest, northwester, Ohio, overcast, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, repositions, Scranton, Shear, showers, south, southe, Southeast, suburbs of philadelphia, Summer, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tornadoes, Trough, troughs, updates, valleys, Virginia, warm, weather, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Another rainy day for the region

June 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:39 AM
A clash of air masses is unfolding right over the forecast area as the marine air mass that has been over the forecast area the past several days slowly is eroded from the region and off the coast. The latest surface map best describes the current situation. High pressure remains off the New England [...]

Tags: air, air masses, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, boarder, Bridgeport, buffalo ny, central hudson, central maryland, central Pennsylvania, Citi Field, coast, coastal waters, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, england, evening hours, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, guidance, hail, Hartford, hazy conditions, heavy rain, high, Hudson Valley, Islip, isolated thunderstorms, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, map, maps, Maryland, metros, Mets, mid, models, new england coast, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Northeast, northern, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, rebound, risk, scattered showers, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, south, southe, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, troughs, unstable air mass, upper level trough, valleys, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Stationary front to keep dreary conditions through Friday

June 10th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:13 AM
While much of eastern Pennsylvania was impacted by strong to severe thunderstorms yesterday, much of the coastal plain was under the influence of a cool marine air mass, which produced generally overcast skies and showery conditions. The strong to severe thunderstorms over Pennsylvania produce large hail, frequent light, and flash flooding. I do not [...]

Tags: air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, canada, central hudson, Citi Field, coast, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, cool marine, cool side, destabilization, Disturbance, drifts, east, eastern Pennsylvania, evening temperatures, evenings, exiting, extent, Fall, flood, flooding, floods, foggy conditions, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, humid air, humidity, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, map, maps, marine influence, Mets, mid, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Ocean, Ohio, overcast, overcast skies, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, plymouth state, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, Rockies, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, slides, south, Southeast, southern pennsylvania, specifics, state weather, stationary front, suggestion, Summer, surface wind vectors, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, waves, weather, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

June 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning. The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]

Tags: air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, briefly, central maryland, Citi Field, city metro, clouds, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold front, colors, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, Delaware, dense fog, destabilization, discussion, dives, downburst, downpours, east, east central pennsylvania, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern virginia, elevation, elevations, evenings, exiting, ey, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, frequent lightning, front, gusts, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, impressive line, interaction, Islip, jet stream, Jets, level jet, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, low clouds, lows, map, maps, Maryland, mesoscale, metros, Mets, mid, moisture, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, occlusion, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, Rainfall, Reading, Scranton, severe weather, Shear, showers, similarity, south, spc, spike, strong wind, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, troughs, valleys, Virginia, warm, warm moist air, waves, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind gusts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Stormy and wet conditions to continue through Friday

June 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:23 AM
A line of impressively strong thunderstorms moved through much of central New Jersey this morning with very heavy rainfall, wind gusts over 50 mph, and impressive lightning strikes. Those thunderstorms have already had an impact on the region’s forecast as the cold front that was to the west of the region is now off [...]

Tags: afternoon hours, air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, Citi Field, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold front, Connecticut, connecticut coast, continuation, Delaware, delaware river valley, diameter, Disturbance, downpours, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, frequent lightning, front, guidance, gusts, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, humid air, humidity, impressive lightning, Islip, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Maine, map, maps, mesoscale, Mets, mid, mid level, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, rebound, risk, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, Shear, showers, slides, south, Southeast, stationary front, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tennessee, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tornadoes, valleys, visibility, warm, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind gusts, wind shear, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Active spring pattern continues

April 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:26 AM
The Spring pattern that has brought a noticeable increase in precipitation over much of the forecast area, and that pattern will continue through the end of this week and through this weekend.
Note the map to the left. I labeled the “storm track” but not the jet stream pattern. The reason why is because the [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, caution, coast, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, Disturbance, dives, drought, elevation, elevations, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, metros, mid, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Northeast, northern, nuetral, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, south, Storm, storms, Summer, surfaces, Sussex, synoptic, systems, Tennessee, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

Fog will burn away, severe weather on the way

April 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 AM
The latest visible satellite image clearly shows that fog has developed throughout much of the forecast area with dense fog advisories issued for much of the region. The dense fog has developed due to a combination of lingering low level moisture from a few showers early this morning and very light winds. The good [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, canada, cards, clear skies, coast, cold, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, dense fog, Disturbance, dives, east, elevation, elevations, england, Erie, evenings, exiting, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, front, gradient, great spring, Gulf of Mexico, gusts, hail, Hartford, high, interaction, isentropic, Islip, last sunday, level moisture, lifting, light winds, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, metros, Mexico, mid, mid levels, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, northern, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, risk, satellite, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, similarity, sound, soundings, south, Southeast, southeasterly winds, spike, spring afternoon, steady rain, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Texas, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tights, tomorrow afternoon, Trenton, Trough, troughs, upper level trough, valleys, visibility, visible satellite image, warm, water vapor satellite, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Rain returns for next four days!

March 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:13 AM
A break in the dry and cool weather is beginning and a good dose of rainfall will be moving through the forecast area this afternoon and again on Saturday night through Sunday.
An area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley continues to organize this morning and will move towards the forecast area by [...]

Tags: advection, afternoon clouds, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, central Plains, coast, cold, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, degree range, east, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, great spring, greens, Hartford, high, Islip, jet stream, Jets, Kentucky, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, Mexico, mid, Mid Atlantic, mid march, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north norther, northerly wind, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pva, Rain, Rainfall, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, s, saturday night, Scranton, showers, specifics, spring weather, Storm, storm track, storms, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, Tennessee, Tennessee Valley, Tropical, tropics, Trough, valleys, warm, weather, weather pattern, west, wetter, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed