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Tag Archive for 'mb trough'

Evening Thoughts- fine tuning my thoughts

9:58 PM
As expected, the models are waffling a bit and have trended north and then south.  The latest 00Z NAM appears to be trending south as well, but the let’s look at what if anything has changed in the set up leading up to this storm.
First and foremost, the Sub Tropical disturbance is very [...]

Concerns with a Gulf of Mexico Winter Storm

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 30°F;Humidity: 92%;Heat Index: 30°F;Wind Chill: 27°F;Pressure: 30.08 in.;

Models trend towards light snow for Friday

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10:08 PM
The disturbance that is currently dropping light to moderate snow over the central Plains and Mid West will eventually drive towards the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow night and Friday morning.
The model guidance from the 12Z and 18Z model suites have trended towards a developing low pressure system off the New Jersey coast and [...]

Flurries expected today, more organized snow on Friday

7:40 AM
A weak disturbance is moving through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this morning with a few scattered snow flurries.  No accumulation is expected, however the snow showers will likely put a nice touch to the cold conditions in place right now.  Let’s be honest, what’s the point of it being cold [...]

Slight warmer today, but still cold

7:26 AM
Much like yesterday, this morning is starting out cold with temperatures through out the New York and Philadelphia metropolitan areas in the teens and twenties.  Thankfully, this morning the pressure gradient is much weaker with sustained winds around 5 to 15 mph rather than around 20 mph, so temperatures that are around 25 feel [...]

12Z Model guidance thoughts- storm or no storm?

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4:33 PM
Today, the overall model guidance for 12Z suggest that the potential storm for Friday will either not form at all or will take a track slightly too far east for a significant snowfall.  I am going to focus on the 120 HR of all the model guidance.  The images will be to the [...]

As rain exits, temperatures decline through the day, snow on the way?

8:02 AM
Last night, an impressive low pressure system cut through the eastern Great Lakes, producing moderate to heavy rain over much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.
The heavy rain has come to an end with the linger threat of a few scattered showers through the morning hours.  Temperatures are very warm this [...]

Cloudy and damp conditions dominate the day

8:16 AM
The day before Thanksgiving is always a very busy travel day throughout the United States and especially for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  This year will be no different and the weather conditions over the next few days will have a major roll in traveling conditions.  Throughout this forecast, I leaned [...]

The unknown potential impacts of Tropical Depression Ida

7:20 AM
Tropical Depression Ida is expected to exit the coast of eastern Honduras by this afternoon and slowly move towards the Gulf of Mexico through this weekend.  The NHC expects Ida to strengthen back into a tropical storm this weekend and move towards the eastern Gulf Coast by the middle of next week.
Aside from the [...]

Cold front marks start of cool period of weather

6:50 AM
A cold front over central Pennsylvania will continue to progress to the east this morning and move through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this afternoon.  For the most part, an available moisture has been focused well to the east with yesterday’s coastal low that is now over the northern portions of [...]



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