MCS | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Saturday not a complete wash out

June 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

The new 12Z model guidance is in and appears to have a better handle on the rainfall for Saturday.
The low pressure system is expected to approach the region by Saturday afternoon with scatter showers and thunderstorms. There appears to be less support for a strong MCS to develop, which would have brought a threat [...]

Tags: area, cloud cover, clouds, downpours, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, frequent lightning, guidance, gusts, hail, heavy rain, lightning, low, low pressure system, lows, MCS, Model Guidance, models, Rain, Rainfall, saturday afternoon, saturday morning, showers, systems, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, variable cloud, wills, wind gusts. Technical Discussions Closed

A break in the wet weather today, but more rain on the way

June 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
As low pressure exits the forecast area this morning, a brief break in the clouds and rainfall can be expected through the day. In case anyone forgot, that big bright ball in the sky is called the sun, and no we are not in Seatlle. Weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will [...]

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Thunderstorms over Ohio Valley to influence conditions this afternoon

June 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:43 AM

A strong Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is currently moving through the Ohio Valley this morning behind a warm front that ismoving through western Pennsylvania. The MCS is supported by a mid level disturbance that is moving east along the frontal boundary and will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon. While I [...]

Tags: air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, Citi Field, coast, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, convective, Disturbance, east, elevation, elevations, evening thunderstorms, evenings, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, frontal boundary, guidance, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, intensity, interaction, Islip, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, MCS, mesoscale, mesoscale convective system, Mets, mid, mid level, Model Guidance, models, moderation, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Phillies game, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, remnants, Scranton, significant impact, southern portion, stationary front, Sussex, systems, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, valleys, warm, western pennsylvania, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Severe weather potentially explosive tomorrow afternoon

June 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:38 PM
A preview of the a potentially very active afternoon was seen this afternoon over much of southern Monmouth and Ocean counties of New Jersey this afternoon. A weak disturbance, a remnant from the MCS that impacted much of the Mid West early this morning, sparked off a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms [...]

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Active weather pattern continues for this week

June 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:28 AM
The weather pattern for this summer certainly is developing an active characteristic as yet another week of persistent threats of showers and thunderstorms can be expected.
There are a lot of interesting features to examine on the water vapor this morning, so lets dive right in! A trough over the Canadian Maritimes continues to slowly [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, briefly, canadian maritimes, Caribbean, Citi Field, city metro, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, Delaware, delaware river valley, Disturbance, dive right, dives, downpours, east, easterly wind, echoes, england, evenings, Examiner, exiting, Fall, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Gulf of Mexico, gusts, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, humidity, Islip, Jets, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, Maryland, MCS, metros, Mets, Mexico, mid, Mississippi, moisture, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Northeast, northern, northern pennsylvania, orientation, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, Reading, remnants, Scranton, Shear, showers, south, Southeast, Southeast Coast, Southwest, stable marine air, strong wind, Summer, surfaces, Sussex, systems, Tennessee, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, travelers, Tropical, tropical moisture, tropics, Trough, troughs, unstable air mass, unstable nature, upper level disturbance, valleys, Virginia, visibility, warm, warm air mass, water vapor, weather, weather pattern, weeke, west, wetter, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind gusts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

MCS keeps flooding rain at bay

March 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 AM
A mesoscale convective system or MCS formed over North Carolina last night and will have a significant impact on the forecast today.
An MCS is basically a large complex of thunderstorms with a mesoscale low pressure system. These thunderstorms can produce very heavy rain, strong damaging winds, and frequent lightning over a location, but [...]

Tags: advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, bay, Belmar, Bridgeport, clear skies, coast, cold, cold front, Connecticut, convection, convective, east, england, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, frequent lightning, front, gradient, gusts, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Islip, light winds, lightning, Long Island, low, lows, MCS, mesoscale, mesoscale convective system, metros, mid, moisture, moisture advection, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, normals, north, north norther, northe, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, significant impact, Southeast, Southeast Coast, steady rainfall, strong wind, Sussex, sustained winds, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tranquil day, valleys, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind gusts, windy. Technical Discussions Closed

Severe Weather Today

August 4th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The north-central Plains, Mid West, and Great Lakes will be very active today with severe weather. There are a lot of different mid level disturbances enhancing showers and thunderstorms over the region this morning including a strong MCS over the Dakotas. However, the overall theme with the severe weather threat through the evening hours will [...]

Tags: Chicago, Flash Flooding, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, hail, heavy rain, Houston, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, MCS, Michigan, Mid West, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, plains, severe weather, South Dakota, Texas, thunderstorm, tornado, wind gusts, Wisconsin. General Discussions Closed

Severe Weather Today

July 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The majority of the severe weather will be focused over the northern Plains today. A strong disturbance from western Canada will move towards the northern Plains this evening as a cold front at the surface. A strong low level jet at 850 MB will intensify and transport significant moisture and heat into the region. In [...]

Tags: Albany, Boston, Connecticut, Flash Flooding, hail, heavy rain, Illinois, Iowa, lightning, Maine, Massachusetts, MCS, Minnesota, Nebraska, New England, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, northern Plains, Rhode Island, Severe Thunderstorm, South Dakota, Syracuse, tornado, Vermont, wind gusts, Wisconsin. General Discussions Closed

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