NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

UPDATED SNOW MAP

7:05 PM
This new snow map is for tonight through Friday night.  The slight changes in the map are based on better data to focus the best mesoscale forcing for this storm, which I will discuss tonight in the live updates.  Otherwise, my thoughts have not changed from this morning.

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 39°F;Humidity: 86%;Heat [...]

How New York City and Long Island missed out on yesterday’s storm

1:14 PM
Before yesterday’s storm, there was a great amount of uncertainty on the exact amount of snowfall that would fall over the New York City metropolitan area and Long Island.  As the storm approached, there was indications that heavy snowfall was going to be able to push into New York City and at least the [...]

Why I’m concerned about heavy snow along the New Jersey Coast

10:50 AM
Premium Post
This morning I discussed my concern for convective snowfall along the New Jersey coast in the public post.  I wanted to give more details on this threat this morning.
This morning I took a look at the latest sounding from OKX, which is on Long Island.  Granted, the sounding is still a bit of [...]

Coastal close call for late tonight

7:12 AM
A strong disturbance over the Ohio Valley is gaining strength and diving southeast towards the Mid Atlantic coast this morning.  This disturbance will spawn a coastal low late tonight off the Delaware coast that will have some minor direct and significant indirect impacts on the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.
Through today, clouds [...]

Evening Thoughts- The start of an active pattern

7:23 PM

A cold front continues to slowly move to the east this evening and is approaching the Ohio Valley.  Note that the majority of the showers and thunderstorms along this cold front are focused over the southern Mississippi Valley where the strongest PVA is found, namely at the base of this trough.  Given the current [...]

Rainfall Amounts Tuesday Night Through Wednesday

8:35 AM
The official rainfall amounts are in for the period of Tuesday night through Wednesday with impressive totals.  Extreme southeastern New Jersey came in with rainfall amounts over 3 inches as strong mesoscale banding produced a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain over these locations.  Much of southern New Jersey received 2 to 3 [...]

Evening Update- The Rain Approaches

7:10 PM
This evening, a large area of rainfall is moving from the Tennessee Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic.  This rainfall is driven by a strong upper level disturbance centered over the Mississippi Valley that will move towards central New York by tomorrow afternoon.
The water vapor image this evening shows that a steady feed of [...]

Breaking down the water vapor satellite image

9:36 AM
Through the winter one of the most important tools I like to use in what many call “NOW-CASTING” is the water vapor satellite image.  Don’t get me wrong, surface observations and radar data is very important as well, but the water vapor satellite pictures really lets me tie everything together very nicely.
Now let’s take [...]

Mesoscale question for central New Jersey

5:05 AM
Yesterday I got an interesting question on my facebook wall from a reader in Manalapan, New Jersey.  Here is what he wrote:
“I live in a neighboring community ( Manalapan )… Yesterday I watched the radars most of the afternoon & evening & found again that storms just fade away or dissapate so many times [...]

Evening thoughts for Tuesday, July 21 2009

8:30 PM
The upper low that brought heavy rain to much of the forecast area this afternoon is currently over central Pennsylvania and will continue to lift north into the St. Lawrence Valley.  The surface low pressure system that developed off the DELMARVA Peninsula coast produced rainfall amounts ranging from a quarter inch to over an [...]