NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant heavy rain threat expected this weekend

4:30 PM
A significant rainfall event is expected to begin late on Thursday and is expected to continue through early next week.  All model guidance is coming into strong agreement on the development of a long duration rain event for all of the northern Mid Atlantic.
A strong upper low currently over the central Plains will slowly [...]

Tranquil conditions continue, but rainy weekend on the way

7:30 AM
High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies.  The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly [...]

High pressure dominates, but not for long

9:40 AM
High pressure is in full control over much of the eastern third of the nation this morning and remain in control through tomorrow evening.  As the high pressure moves northeast of the northern Mid Atlantic on Sunday and a developing low pressure over the Mississippi Valley approaches, winds will veer to the southeast and [...]

More thoughts on this storm

8:13 AM

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 54%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 20°F;Pressure: 30.33 in.;

Evening Thoughts- fine tuning my thoughts

9:58 PM
As expected, the models are waffling a bit and have trended north and then south.  The latest 00Z NAM appears to be trending south as well, but the let’s look at what if anything has changed in the set up leading up to this storm.
First and foremost, the Sub Tropical disturbance is very [...]

Cold front passage brings Arctic air back

7:30 AM
A cold front with an Arctic air mass behind the passage of the front is moving through the region this morning with scattered snow showers for much of the region.  The cold front is currently located in western Pennsylvania and will move east through the day.  Winds initially from the southwest will allow afternoon [...]

Additional thoughts on this weekend

7:40 AM
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I really put the majority of my time in trying to figure out how to handle the evolution of the storm for this weekend, so I didn’t spend much time looking at long range drivers like the stratosphere and MJO progression, but rest assured that no changes have occurred to deviate from the [...]

MJO on the move and a return of a real wintery threat showing up

10:05 AM
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Over the past three weeks, the 500 MB pattern has been generally unfavorable for any significant winter storms for a variety of reasons.  At first, the overwhelming strength of the negative NAO suppressed any potential for Sub Tropical disturbances to interact with the cold air at place, leading to a cold and dry [...]

Additional thoughts on tomorrow morning

8:10 AM
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The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast.  However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest [...]

Minor snow event tomorrow morning

7:22 AM
This morning, a strong Sub Tropical disturbance is driving out of the Mississippi Valley and moving towards the Tennessee Valley.  This disturbance will eventually reach the southern Mid Atlantic coast by tomorrow morning to bring portions of the Philadelphia metropolitan area a mix of snow, sleet, and rain.
Currently, the disturbance is pulling up moisture [...]