NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant heavy rain threat expected this weekend

4:30 PM
A significant rainfall event is expected to begin late on Thursday and is expected to continue through early next week.  All model guidance is coming into strong agreement on the development of a long duration rain event for all of the northern Mid Atlantic.
A strong upper low currently over the central Plains will slowly [...]

Tranquil conditions expected through mid week

9:14 AM
A stretch of great weather conditions continues today with strong high pressure over the Ohio Valley.  The high pressure system, producing a moderating west and northwesterly wind, will slowly move to the East coast over the next several days.  The shift in the high pressure system to the Tennessee Valley and eventually the southern [...]

Light rain and snow tonight leads to minor accumulations

6:36 PM
I have been hinting for some time that the precipitation shield for tonight’s storm was going to be more expansive than what was being forecasted.  However, I am not very impressed with the accumulation potential for this storm.  The first and foremost is the warm boundary layer temperatures.
Besides the fact that the surface freezing [...]

Minor snow threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

9:15 PM
A very energetic Sub Tropical disturbance is rapidly developing along the Gulf Coast this evening.  However, a more important disturbance that will determine the forecast is actually along the West coast.
While the storm along the Gulf Coast certainly appears ominous, the progression of the Pacific storm this evening into the coast of Washington and [...]

A nice break from winter mayhem

7:53 AM
Most times in life, too much of a good thing can become a bad thing.  I believe many will agree we are at that point when it comes to snowfall for this month.  Considering that many locations in the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area have received above normal to record breaking snowfall [...]

12Z NAM Thoughts

9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run.  Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration.  Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas?  Well,not exactly.
What [...]

Another significant snowfall on the way

8:14 AM
Here we go again!  Another major winter storm has a target for the northern Mid Atlantic with the potential for another one to two feet of snow for many locations in the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area along with very strong winds and near zero visibility for Wednesday morning.
The water vapor satellite [...]

Complicated and intense winter storm on the way

8:10 AM
I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I’ve had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting [...]

More thoughts on this storm

8:13 AM

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 54%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 20°F;Pressure: 30.33 in.;

Evening Thoughts- fine tuning my thoughts

9:58 PM
As expected, the models are waffling a bit and have trended north and then south.  The latest 00Z NAM appears to be trending south as well, but the let’s look at what if anything has changed in the set up leading up to this storm.
First and foremost, the Sub Tropical disturbance is very [...]