Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
11:05 PM
The 00Z guidance confirmed my suspicion that the 12Z guidance was not handling the development of the 700 MB upper low correctly.
At this time,this storm is clearly going to have a major impact on the entire northern Mid Atlantic. While I likely will have to adjust some features on the snowfall map to the [...]
9:07 PM
This morning I discussed my uncertainty in the forecast and where I felt the largest threat for an accumulating snowfall will be most likely. While my uncertainty for the storm was pretty clear, I did feel confident enough to state that the northern interior was going to miss out on this storm. My concern [...]
7:14 AM
As I woke up this morning to look at the 06Z guidance, I had to laugh to myself. Models converging on an idea for this storm? Yeah right! Of course, who thought this was going to be easy.
This morning I went to a tried and true method that I learned back in college and [...]
9:41 AM
As discussed yesterday, the majority of the model guidance and ensemble guidance came into strong support for keeping at that time Tropical Storm Ida, separate from the trough over the eastern United States and left to wander the Gulf of Mexico and eventually die off due to consistent up welling in the Gulf of [...]
8:11 AM
The models over the past several days had been advertising a rather significant rainfall event for the forecast area. The observations from the past two storms are in and here is the combined precipitation amounts from these storms.
I made a map based on the official National Weather Service Observations. The heaviest rainfall occurred along [...]
9:05 PM
Fall is in the air, literally, as a strong Polar air mass builds into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this evening. I could smell the change in the air mass as the air just smelled cleaner, kind of that fleshly raked leaves type smell that I loved when I was a [...]
7:30 AM
The forecast for today through tonight is best described as significantly complicated and potentially very active. The main theme is basically the progression of the warm front currently over southwesterly Pennsylvania through eastern Virginia. I want to start with the fact that the surface low pressure system is further north and weaker than forecasted [...]
The new 12Z model guidance is in and appears to have a better handle on the rainfall for Saturday.
The low pressure system is expected to approach the region by Saturday afternoon with scatter showers and thunderstorms. There appears to be less support for a strong MCS to develop, which would have brought a threat [...]
7:15 AM
As low pressure exits the forecast area this morning, a brief break in the clouds and rainfall can be expected through the day. In case anyone forgot, that big bright ball in the sky is called the sun, and no we are not in Seatlle. Weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will [...]
7:39 AM
A clash of air masses is unfolding right over the forecast area as the marine air mass that has been over the forecast area the past several days slowly is eroded from the region and off the coast. The latest surface map best describes the current situation. High pressure remains off the New England [...]
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