Moisture Advection | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

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Wet rush hour marks the start of soaked weekend

March 12th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

3:50 PM
The rain is here and it is not going to be stopping any time soon through this weekend, which will be a perfect time to catch up on some movies, a good book, or perhaps finally conquer a very difficult video game. What ever you do this weekend, it likely will not be done [...]

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Wet night ahead, better conditions for the rest of the week

March 3rd, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:15 PM
Strong moisture advection off the Atlantic is supporting light to moderate rain along the coast and light snow over portions of Connecticut, the Hudson Valley, and northeastern Pennsylvania. The snow will continue to slowly accumulate over these locations as temperatures slowly fall into the upper 20’s to lower 30’s with accumulations of another 1 [...]

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An overview of mesoscale banding and the impacts on snowstorms

February 27th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

11:30 AM
Through this winter one of the major impacts that has significantly impacted snow fall totals is the development of mesoscale snow banding within the precipitation shield. The impact of such banding has produced staggering snowfall gradients throughout the region and has created significant impacts on many locations this winter.
Mesoscale banding can have several different [...]

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Brief 12Z NAM Thoughts

February 23rd, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

10:08 AM
The latest 12Z NAM is out and boy does it deliver a heck of a snow storm!
The basic idea of the 12Z NAM is to take the 500 MB low over the Tennessee Valley and basically park that upper low over the central New Jersey coastal waters and over Long Island on Thursday [...]

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Uncertainty remains as major winter storm heads east

February 4th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:43 AM
I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance. If I [...]

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Overview of the Snowfall on Saturday Evening 01/30/10

January 31st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:45 AM
Premium Post
Yesterday, a Sub Tropical disturbance intensified over the Tennessee Valley and enhanced a surface low that moved from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina coastal waters by Saturday evening.
The forecasting of this storm via model guidance was relatively poor for portions of Southern New Jersey as most guidance had less than four [...]

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Keeping an eye on the trends

January 29th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:57 AM
Premium Post
The one feature this morning, that I discussed briefly in the public post this morning can be seen very clearly on the IR and water vapor images.
Note the cooling cloud tops over the Ohio Valley that is racing towards the northern Mid Atlantic. This area of cooling is the direct result of [...]

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Very cold day on tap for northern Mid Atlantic

January 29th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:50 AM
In case you haven’t realized from the gusty winds from last night, Arctic air has arrived for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas. Temperatures this morning are in the single digits and teens over many interior locations and mid to upper 10’s along the coast with a gusty northwesterly wind around 10 [...]

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Evening Thoughts: The risk of a stronger, more defined coastal low

December 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front. The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario. One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]

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Verification Analysis Of The Pre Christmas Blizzard of December 2009

December 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:00 PM
Now that the winter storm is over, it is time to see how I did with this storm. The forecast analysis appeared to be a picture of two worlds. Over the interior, I feel I did poorly which I will discuss what went wrong. Meanwhile, the forecast along the coast could not have been [...]

Tags: analysis 3, c 70, dew points, forecast area, inch snowfall, map, moisture advection, NY NJ PA Weather verification, radar signatures, state sections, threat analysis, two worlds, winter storm. Technical Discussions 1 Comment