7:49 AM

A strong upper low over northern Virginia this morning will move through New Jersey this afternoon with bands of light to moderate snow throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  This upper low will support the intensification of an area of low pressure to the east of Monmouth County, New Jersey which will move towards the southern New England coastal waters by this evening.

A band of moderate snowfall is developing over Maryland and southeastern Pennsylvania this morning that is expected to move through southern and central New Jersey through late this morning and continue through Long Island this afternoon.  Another band of snow is developing over central Pennsylvania that is expected to move through the entire northern Mid Atlantic through this evening.  Finally, snow is also developing with the coastal low over portions of the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and southern New England.  This storm is rather disorganized right now with several parts of the storm coming together over the region, but will become a well organized storm to the east of northern New England by late tonight.

Snowfall totals through the rest of the day will depend on the development of the various features discussed above.  As such, lesser amounts are expected to the southwest with higher snowfall totals of over 4 inches can be expected over Connecticut.  Overall however, most locations through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas will range from 1 to 4 inches of snow as these bands move through.

Persistent cold air advection will hold temperatures in the lower 30′s this morning and then fall into the mid to upper 20′s throughout the region this afternoon.  Wet surfaces this morning will freeze over, making the threat for black ice and thus slippery conditions a significant concern for this evening’s rush hour.

After this low pressure system exits by this evening, high pressure will remain in control late tonight through Saturday with scattered clouds and temperatures ranging from the upper 20′s to mid 30′s for highs and upper 10′s to upper 20′s for lows.  Overall, temperatures will average slightly below normal.  A few scattered snow showers will be possible each day due to weak disturbances passing through the northern Mid Atlantic, however accumulations from these disturbances will remain below 2 inches throughout the region.

Another major winter storm appears to be developing by the start of next week.  There are strong hints of a major Nor’ easter impacting the northern Mid Atlantic Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening with strong winds, heavy precipitation, and cold conditions.  At this time precipitation type is in question due to the uncertainty of the exact track and the state of boundary level conditions.  However, the potential for significant snowfall throughout the region does exist and this storm will have to be monitored for impacts ranging from coastal flooding to high snowfall totals.