NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Rain today, snow potential grows for end of the week

8:25 AM
A new coastal storm is starting to take shape off the North Carolina coast this morning and has produced periods of moderate to heavy rain along the immediate coast and a mix of snow and sleet over the northwestern interior.  In fact, moderate to heavy snow is growing in coverage and intensity this morning [...]

Afternoon thoughts- the snow approaches

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2:40 PM
The strong Arctic disturbance is on the move this afternoon and is holding together rather well.  The latest radar images have light to moderate snow over much of the Ohio Valley this afternoon which is slowly progressing eastward towards western Pennsylvania.
My overall thoughts on this storm from the past few days have not [...]

Wet and raw conditions expected for the New Jersey coast

5:00 AM
Over the past several days, I have discussed a great deal about the potential impacts that the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida will have on the northern Mid Atlantic.  It is now clear that the models in general have handled this pattern poorly.
A surface low will develop off the North Carolina coast this afternoon [...]

Observed Rainfall Amounts Through Sunday

8:11 AM
The models over the past several days had been advertising a rather significant rainfall event for the forecast area.  The observations from the past two storms are in and here is the combined precipitation amounts from these storms.
I made a map based on the official National Weather Service Observations.  The heaviest rainfall occurred along [...]

Nor’ Easter stalls over New Jersey

2:30 PM
The upper low associated with the coastal storm today appears to be slightly stronger than expected.  As a result, the coastal low has now moved into south-central New Jersey and is expected to stall over central New Jersey over the next 24 hours.
The 850 MB low has matured to a point where the low [...]

Coastal low takes hold of Mid Atlantic

5:15 AM
A developing coastal low and associated upper low is going to have a very strong influence on the Northern Mid Atlantic through Saturday with periods of heavy rain, strong winds along the coast, and coastal flooding.
It is clear this morning that a strong upper low is taking form over the Tennessee Valley and this [...]

A very wet 48 hours

7:00 PM
The rainfall currently developing over the forecast area has no relation with Tropical Storm Danny that is currently over the Southeast coastal waters.  This rainfall is due to a warm front that is still stalled over extreme southern New Jersey through central Maryland.
Rain will continue to impact much of the forecast area and expand [...]

Mesoscale question for central New Jersey

5:05 AM
Yesterday I got an interesting question on my facebook wall from a reader in Manalapan, New Jersey.  Here is what he wrote:
“I live in a neighboring community ( Manalapan )… Yesterday I watched the radars most of the afternoon & evening & found again that storms just fade away or dissapate so many times [...]

Late Evening Thoughts

10:24 PM
Even the RUC model guidance has a pretty poor handling on the thunderstorms that have developed over much of southern New York and entering into the forecast area this evening.  So when the model guidance fails you, it is time to use real time observations and some of the common sense I learned in [...]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Central New Jersey

7:30 PM
The National Weather Service at Mount Holly has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for much of central New Jersey.  Here is the following warning.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TRENTON…
SOUTHWESTERN [...]