DROUGHT WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NEW JERSEY

7:22 AM

6 AM Surface Map- Penn State E-wall

An area of low pressure off the VA/NC coast is moving along a stationary front that extends northeastward through the New Jersey coastal waters.  This low pressure system is enhancing lifting over the Philadelphia and southern New York City metropolitan area, producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.  This rainfall was a bit unexpected as this low pressure system was not suppose to be as intense as is currently being observed.

The water vapor satellite pictures this morning shows an atmosphere moisture loaded from the Gulf of Mexico right into the Mid Atlantic.

Water Vapor- NWS/NOAA

The early onset of the precipitation does not mean these low pressure systems are moving faster, but just that the lifting for this particular low pressure system is stronger.  Several mid level disturbance are embedded in the moisture advection over the eastern third of the United States and will continue to produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.  This particular band of rainfall will continue to move northeast and bring steady rainfall to the entire forecast area this morning.  Rain will taper off in the early afternoon to scattered showers, however cool and overcast conditions will continue through the rest of the day.  Rain will intensify once again in the afternoon and evening hours as another round of disturbances enter from the southwest.  Note the ridge over the Bahamas this morning.  This ridge will build westward over the next 2 days and force the storm track of the disturbance over Oklahoma to the north of the region.  This ridge will eventually have a direct influence on the northern Mid Atlantic.

A strong upper disturbance currently over eastern Oklahoma will move towards the eastern Great Lakes

Upper Level Pattern Tonight- Penn State E-Wall

tonight.  The upper disturbance will move to the east northeast over the ridge building over the Southeast.  The combination of continuous moisture advection and strong lifting at the lower, mid, and upper levels will foster another round of moderate to heavy rainfall tonight through Wednesday afternoon.  A tight thermal gradient from 700 MB to the surface is evident in the guidance, which will support strong lifting over southern and central New Jersey through Wednesday afternoon.  Rainfall amounts throughout the northern Mid Atlantic will range from 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts over 2 inches along the coast.  An exception will be northeastern Pennsylvania through the central Hudson Valley where rainfall amounts will range from 0.50″ to 1.00″ as these locations will be furthest away from the best low and mid level dynamics.  The rain will exit by early Wednesday evening, leaving drying conditions and clearing skies for Wednesday night.

The ridge over the Southeast will build into much of the East coast with dry conditions, scattered cloud cover, and temperatures averaging slightly above normal in the lower to mid 60′s for highs for Thursday and Friday.  This ridge is a temporary, transient feature that doesn’t have much in the way of lasting support given the pattern in the Pacific.

Saturday Afternoon Upper Level Map-Penn State E-Wall

A strong area of low pressure, currently developing over the Rockies, will drive towards eastern Canada by Saturday afternoon.  A cold front will follow behind and drive through the northern Mid Atlantic by the evening hours.  Note that at 500 MB, the majority of the lifting is focused towards the St. Lawrence River Valley and New England.  This cold front will produce periods of heavy rainfall, however the heaviest rain should be focused further north on Saturday evening.  Still, a band of moderate to heavy rain can be expected as the cold front passes.  The frontal passage will be relatively quick, lasting 3 to 5 hours over a location.  The majority of Saturday will remain dry and warm up until the cold front approaches.

Once the cold front exits, a Polar air mass will take hold over the region as high pressure settles over the eastern third of the nation through early next week.  Dry and cool conditions can be expected with temperatures holding in the lower to mid 50′s to start November.  On average, temperatures will range around 3 degrees below normal for the period.

Looking further ahead into next week.  A battle of air masses will continue over the Mid Atlantic.  A ridge will attempt to build along the Gulf Coast in response to a disturbance within the Sub Tropical Jet stream undercutting the ridge along the western coast of Canada.  The upper level pattern will be split with a Polar air mass bleeding south from eastern Canada over the northern Mid Atlantic and much warmer conditions over the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic.  This pattern suggests that a stationary front will be located somewhere between Delaware and Virginia with a persistent cool northeasterly flow over the northern Mid Atlantic leading to overcast conditions and a risk of scattered showers and drizzle each day.