Archive for morning snow
Ocean storm brings rain/snow mix and some coastal flooding today
Posted by: | Comments8:00 AM
The coastal low off the Virginia/North Carolina coastal waters this morning continues to slowly exit to the east-northeast this morning. The coastal low actually has ended up slightly closer to the coast than expected, but is now moving into the Atlantic with diminishing impacts through the rest of the day. However, much of the northern Mid Atlantic has felt the influences of this low pressure system more than most thought, as the precipitation shield expanded further north and west than what has been suggested on guidance, which was warned by me for several days.
The majority of accumulating snowfall has already occurred for many locations west of the Delaware River with on average 2 to 4 inches of snow has accumulated has the precipitation shield expanded north and west last night. Through this morning, snow will continue to taper off to scattered snow showers with little significant impact to travel conditions.
Closer to the coast, a mix of rain and snow is moving through the region with temperatures remain above freezing for most locations. An accumulation of 1 to 4 inches is expected over the Hudson Valley and Connecticut where temperatures will remain at or just below freezing while the immediate New York City metropolitan area through the northern suburbs of Philadelphia will have accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches, mostly on colder surfaces.
Along the coast, a mix of rain and snow will continue, but given that none of the snow is accumulating, the precipitation might as well be rain. Precipitation totals through this afternoon will range from a half an inch to as much as an inch along the immediate coastline. Winds will be sustained at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts through this afternoon.
The most impressive impact from this storm will be the coastal flooding and strong winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. A coastal flood warning has been issued for all of the New Jersey coast and a coastal flood advisory has been issued for Long Island through tonight. As the low pressure system continues to intensify, gale warnings for sustained wind of 20 to 35 mph and gusts over 40 mph has been issued for all of the New Jersey coastal waters through tonight.
Once this low pressure system exits tonight, the weather pattern will become much more tranquil with a steady moderation in temperatures expected. High pressure will become established over the Tennessee Valley tomorrow through Sunday with dry conditions, scattered clouds, and temperatures averaging near normal with afternoon highs in the upper 30′s to mid 40′s through the period and lows in the upper 20′s to mid 30′s. Temperatures will moderate into the 40′s and lower 50′s by this weekend.
A cold front will move through the northern Mid Atlantic from the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday morning with scattered showers, mostly rain, and slightly cooler temperatures. However, no significant turn to colder weather is expected over the next seven days.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 33°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 33°F;
- Wind Chill: 23°F;
- Pressure: 29.58 in.;
A brief moderation today before the return to cold and some snow
Posted by: | Comments7:34 AM
This morning it is pretty obvious where the next area of low pressure system that will impact the northern Mid Atlantic currently resides. A strong Arctic disturbance is now racing through the Mid West and western Great Lakes and will reach the Ohio Valley tonight. This disturbance and the associated low pressure system will enter western Pennsylvania tonight and push over the Appellation Mountains while progressing east. As is normal with these types of low pressure system, the surface low pressure system will weaken over the Appellation Mountains and then redevelop along the Mid Atlantic coast.
Now, it has been my forecast for the past few days that this low pressure system has a bit more to offer for the immediate coast than what has been advertised. I’ve updated the snow map this morning to take into account the extent of the current precipitation shield, 
which will weaken a break up as the moisture descends off the Appellation Mountains, but still able to produce a dusting to an inch of snow west of the Delaware River. As the low pressure system redevelops off the southern New Jersey coast early tomorrow morning, snow will start to reorganize. The precipitation shield will reorganize along the coast tomorrow morning. A general 1 to 3 inches can be expected for the morning rush hour for the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas. Along the immediate coast, from much of Long Island through central and southern coastal New Jersey, there is a threat for more organized snowfall and some mesoscale ocean effect snow banding. The mesoscale and even synoptic model guidance is starting to pick up this potential with slightly higher QPF forecast for southern New Jersey, however given the orientation of the low pressure system and the strong PVA at 500 MB, I decided to include Long Island in this threat as well.
Once this low pressure system exits, the Arctic regime returns with another round of very cold conditions for the weekend. High pressure will take hold, providing clear and dry conditions. Temperatures will struggle to break out of the lower 30′s on both Saturday and Sunday, however at least this time the winds will be generally weak compared to last weekend.
A moderation trend will start for next week, but the only warming will be a return to near normal conditions. The supposed January thaw is not looking all that warm with guidance suggesting only one day breaking 40 degrees in the next 10 days. Through next week, high pressure will sit over the Tennessee Valley, providing tranquil weather conditions. No major storm is expect up through Friday. However, there are indications as the pattern shifts back towards a more colder regime that a major storm is on the horizon after January 15. How this storm develops in terms of interaction of disturbances is clearly unknown by the model guidance as there is a wide range of solutions for next weekend, however there is general agreement in the medium range guidance that a storm in the Sub Tropical jet stream will become energized and the Polar jet stream will begin to amplify at around the same time. This thaw is not going to last long.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 28°F;
- Humidity: 68%;
- Heat Index: 28°F;
- Wind Chill: 17°F;
- Pressure: 29.88 in.;
Snow in April?
Posted by: | Comments7:17 AM
There’s a lot of discussion on the weather boards about a potential snow event for early April, and I’ve received a few emails about this potential so I figure I address the issue quickly this morning.
Snow can certainly happen in April and sometimes right into mid April, however the set up is usually rare and very difficult to come by. For one, the sun angle in early to mid April has a stronger influence on warming the boundary layer in the afternoon, so a marginal air mass won’t do for accumulation on ground surfaces. In most cases, these snowfalls occur in the early morning. Another requirement is that the air mass has to be a very cold Polar or Arctic air mass in place. An air mass that would have to be able to support temperatures peaking in the lower 30′s for highs obviously. Finally, whether we are in December, January, or April; the upper level pattern must be favorable for a snow event. Of course, we did experience an exception to that rule just this month, however having this happen twice in the same year would be something that would be VERY unusual.
As I look at the up coming pattern, I don’t see any support for any type of snowfall over the forecast area. At 500 MB, there is no negative NAO in place. No blocking at all to keep any type of significant cold air in place. Of course, there is no such air mass anywhere over eastern North America in the first place. Also note that a negative PNA pattern is in place, which means there is no significant ridge structure (in fact a wide base trough is in place) over the West, so there is no potential for low pressure to develop along the coast any way. The storm track is clearly from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. So while snow can happen in April, this pattern is clearly not one to support it, unless you go to Vermont; climb a mountain, and camp out at the summit.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 41°F;
- Humidity: 93%;
- Heat Index: 41°F;
- Wind Chill: 36°F;
- Pressure: 29.92 in.;
Another Blast Of Snow For The Interior
Posted by: | Comments6:35 AM
The set up that will be developing tonight through tomorrow does not support a wide spread snow storm for the forecast area and certainly not for locations along the coast. While almost the entire forecast area will see some snow, the snow will change over to rain along the coast. Why?
As I have been pointing to for the last couple of day, I have not felt comfortable with the idea of a significant snow storm forecast for the majority of the forecast area with a 500 MB low centered over the Great Lakes. This screams of a storm track that is focusing the primary low over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. While a coastal low will begin to take shape along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight, this low will not “take over” until the center is north and east of the forecast area. Thus the strong push of warm air by the 850 MB low to the northwest of the forecast area will not be stopped.
Over the interior, however, the atmosphere will remain below freezing throughout the transition of the primary from the Ohio Valley to the coast, thus a moderately heavy snow fall will be expected. The coastal storm explodes off the coast on Sunday afternoon with a significant hit of heavy snow over central Hudson Valley through much of New England. So here’s the forecast!
Southern New Jersey: This area starts above freezing and remains so through the entire storm. No accumulations of snow are expected.
1″-2″: This area includes the New York City and Philadelphia metros. This area will start off below freezing, however an easterly wind at the surface combined with a strong southeasterly low level jet at 850 MB will warm the atmosphere above freezing by mid morning. Snow will mix with and change over to rain on Sunday morning followed by heavy rain in the afternoon hours. An inch or 2 will be possible at the on set.
2″-4″: This area, just far enough away from the coast, will remain around freezing in the afternoon to support a mix of precipitation through the day. The precipitation will start as snow but will mix with sleet and freezing rain, which will keep snowfall accumulations down. Around 0.10″ of ice will be possible in this area.
4″-8″ of snow: This area includes northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, the Poughkeepsie area, and northern Connecticut. For locations over northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey, precipitation will remain all snow. However, the intensity of the snow will be less as the coastal low will not intensify until the majority of the precipitation is to the east of the region.
For locations south of Albany into northern Connecticut, the mixing in of sleet will keep snowfall totals down slightly compared to locations further to the north. Overall though, a moderately heavy snowfall is expected on Sunday afternoon.
6″ – 12″: This area includes Albany throughout much of New England. Heavy snow is expected to develop on Sunday afternoon and continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Depending on the position of mesoscale features, these locations will have the potential for up to 12 inches of snow.
The storm will exit the forecast area for the most part on Sunday evening with very windy conditions on Sunday night. High pressure will build into the forecast area on Monday with clear skies and cold temperatures.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 28°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 28°F;
- Wind Chill: 28°F;
- Pressure: 29.99 in.;
Local Forecast Discussion Updated
Posted by: | CommentsThe local forecast discussion is updated!
A very wet Saturday looks to be in the cards, and if you don’t believe that then check out the radar! Meanwhile, a very cold end to the month is pretty much a lock, but there is still a question on whether a second storm will form for Tuesday morning. Snow over the interior? Yes, it is possible.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 32°F;
- Humidity: 92%;
- Heat Index: 32°F;
- Wind Chill: 32°F;
- Pressure: 30.51 in.;
Freehold
77°
New York
75°
Sussex
73°
Allentown
77°
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