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Major winter storm on the way

December 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:14 AM
As I woke up this morning to look at the 06Z guidance, I had to laugh to myself. Models converging on an idea for this storm? Yeah right! Of course, who thought this was going to be easy.
This morning I went to a tried and true method that I learned back in college and [...]

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Thoughts on 12Z GFS/NAM

December 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:26 AM
This morning I discussed the potential outcomes of the storm for the period of Saturday through Sunday. One of the solutions that I discussed was that the upper low over Quebec would be weaker and thus the disturbance dropping over central Ontario would have more of an influence while the negative NAO, still clearly [...]

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Evening Thoughts- storm threat increases for Friday

November 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:15 PM
Tonight I’ve been going over the various models from the 12Z and 18 Z guidance. First I want to touch on the storm potential for Thursday night into Friday.
The 18Z models are a good indicator of where models are trending or adjusting to. Both the 18Z GFS and NAM produced a stronger and more [...]

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Evening thoughts on Ida and potential rainfall

November 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided [...]

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An important day for the rest of the week

August 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:15 AM
The events that unfold today to the north of the Caribbean Islands will be key to the forecast going forward. This morning the tropical disturbance clearly has a developed circulation at the mid levels and may have finally established a circulation at the surface. Consider the development of this disturbance like a drill digging [...]

Tags: Africa, Alabama, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, Caribbean, Caribbean Islands, Caribbean Sea, circulation, Citi Field, clue, cmc, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, core system, Florida, Freehold, Georgia, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, kick start, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Louisiana, Mets, Mexico, mid level, mid levels, Mississippi, Model Guidance, nam, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, presence, rapid development, Reading, satellite presentation, Scranton, South Carolina, Sussex, Texas, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Disturbance, tropical disturbances, tropical system, Trough, ukmet, Virginia, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

00Z Model Guidance Thoughts

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:28 PM
The 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS has come out for the time period of Sunday afternoon through Monday night with very similar solutions and additional support is gaining for a major snow storm for the immediate coast of the forecast area.
The latest radar trends and satellite images strongly point to a developing and intensifying [...]

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A Quiet Weekend Expected Overall

February 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:04 AM
As discussed last night, I pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the idea of a potential “monster” storm for the East coast on the time frame of Saturday evening through Sunday night. As we discussed, the current Pacific set up and the evolution of the pattern over northwestern Canada simply does [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, boundary layer, Bridgeport, canada, clipper, coast, Connecticut, current pacific, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, east, england, evenings, evolution, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecast period, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, guidance, Gulf of Mexico, Hartford, high, Islip, light winds, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, Mexico, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, Model Guidance, models, moderation, moisture, monster, monster storm, nam, new england coast, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, northern, northwestern canada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, progressive state, quiet weekend, Rain, rain and snow, Reading, s, Scranton, showers, snow, snow shower, snowfall, south, southerly winds, Southern New England, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, valleys, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Thoughts So Far

February 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:23 AM
I got some interesting questions in some emails while working out so I’m going to answer them and give some thoughts about what has been happening since I last post.
The majority of the question revolving around the precipitation over the forecast area now. Yes, the precipitation will continue to move northeast and begin to [...]

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Reality, Models; Models, Reality

February 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:30 PM
I feel like I’m at a dating show over here as the models have started to come to face a little something called reality. The reality is that so far this low is tracking west of the forecasted position. Currently pressures are dropping quickly off the South Carolina and North Carolina coast. I’m not [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, band, Belmar, Bridgeport, coast, Connecticut, continuation, dating show, duration, eastern Pennsylvania, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, Hartford, heavy snowfall, Islip, jet stream, Jets, latest trends, left hook, light snow, Long Island, low, lows, models, moderate snow, moderation, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, radar, Rain, Reading, s, Scranton, snow, snowfall, snowfall accumulations, south, Storm, storms, suggestion, surfaces, surprise, Sussex, tomorrow evening, vector analysis, west, westward, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind vector. Technical Discussions Closed

Thoughts On The Next Sixty-Six Hours

February 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:25 PM
The models this afternoon have been rather akward looking the past few runs. The latest guidance suggest precipitation should not be developing over western Kentucky and Mississippi, only problem is that it is. The latest water vapor satellite trends and the 00Z RAOB data suggest that key elements are in place to produce a [...]

Tags: 00z nam, accumulation, area, bench mark, careful eye, coast, coastal waters, Connecticut, continuation, east, evolution, extremes, ey, favorable placement, favorable rate, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, further north, guidance, Gulf Coast, jet streaks, Jets, Kentucky, level jet, lifting, low, lows, Maine, metros, mid, mid level, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nam, north, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, precipitation, precipitations, pva, raob, Ridge, s, satellite, snow, snowfall, specifics, Storm, storm track, storms, suggestion, systems, Trough, valleys, water vapor images, water vapor satellite, west, western kentucky, wills. Technical Discussions Closed