Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
9:07 PM
This morning I discussed my uncertainty in the forecast and where I felt the largest threat for an accumulating snowfall will be most likely. While my uncertainty for the storm was pretty clear, I did feel confident enough to state that the northern interior was going to miss out on this storm. My concern [...]
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9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]
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9:51 PM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails through the day about pattern changes, storm questions, and pretty much everything in between. First, I’ll answer one question I can share with everyone. Yes, I really am a Mets fan. So, lets get to the rest of the questions.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 46%;Heat Index: [...]
7:07 AM
The strong Polar disturbance that is more developed than guidance suggested a few days ago is an important clue and reminder for the forecast later this week. For now, that disturbance represents another push of a Polar/Arctic air mass after Tuesday afternoon. The key to the forecast over the next several days is the [...]
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9:33 AM
The MJO has gone into the circle of death, which basically means the wave has fallen apart. What does this mean for the pattern going forward? Also, what do I expect for the storm next week?
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 23°F;Humidity: 57%;Heat Index: 23°F;Wind Chill: 10°F;Pressure: 30.06 in.;
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8:40 AM
The medium range guidance is suggesting a pattern break down after this weekend, but the question is if this is a pattern reload or pattern collapse or even if the warm up is as strong as suggested. When the models get crazy, it’s time to go back to what really drives the weather.
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7:26 AM
Much like yesterday, this morning is starting out cold with temperatures through out the New York and Philadelphia metropolitan areas in the teens and twenties. Thankfully, this morning the pressure gradient is much weaker with sustained winds around 5 to 15 mph rather than around 20 mph, so temperatures that are around 25 feel [...]
8:53 PM
Tonight I want to step away from the models, which are certainly trending towards the third solution I discussed this morning and instead put together how I feel this storm will come above. To do this, I am going to use the water vapor satellite picture and hope that you’ll follow me along on [...]
11:26 AM
This morning I discussed the potential outcomes of the storm for the period of Saturday through Sunday. One of the solutions that I discussed was that the upper low over Quebec would be weaker and thus the disturbance dropping over central Ontario would have more of an influence while the negative NAO, still clearly [...]
9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]
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