Long range model guidance is starting to come into agreement with the potential for a significant Nor’ Easter on Wednesday night through Thursday.  

A weak disturbance will cut under the ridge over the Mississippi Valley and dig over the Southeast.  Due to the strong blocking developing over the Western Atlantic, this disturbance will stall over the Southeast coast and continue to slow develop into a mature closed low by Wednesday.  Meanwhile, strong high pressure will continue to sustain itself over and just east of New England.  The result will be a strengthening pressure gradient right along the coast with the potential for coastal flooding and very windy conditions.  Temperatures will also be under a marine influence, which will lead to cool temperatures.  As for rain, the models differ on just how close the precipitation shield gets to the forecast area, but the potential also exists for a heavy rain event as well.

NY NJ PA Weather will keep an eye on this situation, as well, what else is going on, right?

I’m starting to work on my winter forecast that I will release by the end of October.  Over the next few weeks, I will issue some brief statements and ideas I have about this winter.

Here is the first one.

This winter, expect a lot more Nor’ Easters this winter.  The La Nina is certainly over, which means the influence of the Southeast ridge will be no more.  This will allow troughs to dig into the East and allow for cyclogenesis along the East coast.  The question is whether the ENSO state will transition to El Nino or stay neutral.  Well, that’s a discussion for later!