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A nice break from winter mayhem

February 18th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:53 AM
Most times in life, too much of a good thing can become a bad thing. I believe many will agree we are at that point when it comes to snowfall for this month. Considering that many locations in the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area have received above normal to record breaking snowfall [...]

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End of wintery pattern in site

February 11th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
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The pattern for February has certainly delivered as advertised, producing near record if not surpassing record snowfalls throughout the region. However, like any other pattern, this pattern will come to an end and the clues to the pattern ending are already showing up.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 11%;Heat Index: 26°F;Wind Chill: 12°F;Pressure: [...]

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Overview of the Snowfall on Saturday Evening 01/30/10

January 31st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:45 AM
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Yesterday, a Sub Tropical disturbance intensified over the Tennessee Valley and enhanced a surface low that moved from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina coastal waters by Saturday evening.
The forecasting of this storm via model guidance was relatively poor for portions of Southern New Jersey as most guidance had less than four [...]

Tags: arctic oscillation index, atlantic oscillation index, cape may county, coastal waters, final snowfall, four inches, Gulf of Mexico, mb winds, Model Guidance, moisture advection, north atlantic oscillation, Polar Jet Stream, polar vortex, snowfall forecast, snowfall observations, southern portions, southwesterly flow, Tennessee Valley, Tropical Disturbance, water vapor. Technical Discussions Closed

Southern New Jersey focus of snowfall

January 27th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:07 PM
This morning I discussed my uncertainty in the forecast and where I felt the largest threat for an accumulating snowfall will be most likely. While my uncertainty for the storm was pretty clear, I did feel confident enough to state that the northern interior was going to miss out on this storm. My concern [...]

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Moderation for now, but signs of cold pattern return grow stronger

January 14th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Post
9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]

Tags: air mass, arctic oscillation, cold air, collapse, dominant air, dominant influence, heart, late november, latitude, mjo, Model Guidance, nao, North America, north atlantic oscillation, observation, Polar Jet Stream, stratosphere, stratospheric winds, temperatures. Technical Discussions Closed

Eastern ridge return for next week, but for how long?

January 13th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:04 AM
Premium Content
There can be no doubt that change is in the air as the Arctic Oscillation relaxes and the Sub Tropical jet stream gets some breathing room to flex its muscles now. The result of which is a pattern that by next week leads to a ridge moving through the East and a deep [...]

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Negative EPO Fights Back

March 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:12 PM
The winter pattern is still lingering in the northern branch of the Polar jet stream as we continue to see the continuation of a back and forth game between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. As the negative NAO begins to collapse once again early this coming week, the negative EPO [...]

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A Mixed Bag Of Precipitation In Store For The Forecast Area

December 15th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:16 AM
The main rule I want to impart today is that of the NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The upper level pattern, though slowly transforming into a more favorable set up, still remains positive to neutral and certainly not positive through the middle and end of this week and into the weekend. As a result, [...]

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Components For A Northeast Snow Storm

November 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]

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Potential Storm For Next Weekend

October 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know I am jumping ahead a bit for next weekend, but I wanted to start addressing the potential situation that may be developing towards November. Model guidance over the past few runs has shown an interesting development to the north of the Bahamas around November 6th through November 8th, as an upper low deepens [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, arctic oscillation, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Bahamas, Belmar, Bport, Connecticut, east, East Coast, ensembles, Fall, Freehold, guidance, Hartford, interaction, Islip, Long Island, lows, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north atlantic oscillation, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation event, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, south strong wind, Southeast, Storm, storms, surprise, Sussex, tank, tanks, Trough, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed