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Tag Archive for 'northern hemisphere'

The cold pattern is coming! The question is when not if!

9:22 AM
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This morning I’m looking at an overwhelming amount of data pointing to a returning cold pattern that frankly, I’ve had a hard time piecing together exactly what I’m seeing and what it means for the northern Mid Atlantic and the East coast as a whole.  The implications of the developments at the stratospheric [...]

Negative EPO to lead the way back to cold and snow

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7:50 AM
The majority of next week will feature relatively mild conditions compared to the past several weeks, however the mild stretch will not last long as a repeat of what happened in late November is starting to unfold.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 74%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 30.15 in.;

Evening Thoughts- (Part 2) a major storm possible and models back off warm idea

10:20 PM
Models have started to back off the Southeast ridge, large Polar Vortex over western Canada idea as of the 12Z runs.  The most notable change can be observed in the 12Z ECWMF.  In the previous days, in both 00Z and 12Z guidance, the ECMWF suggested the Polar Vortex would put an end to the [...]

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The [...]

Finally! A dry Saturday

8:48 AM
For the first time in a while, I can actually say there is no threat of rain of any kind through this weekend, and frankly that’s nice to say.  High pressure will dominate the northern Mid Atlantic through Monday with dry conditions, clear skies, and temperatures rebounding to near and above normal temperature regimes!
Another [...]

Exiting storm to followed by cool conditions

7:22 AM
There are a lot of interesting features throughout the northern Hemisphere this morning.  This morning I’ll touch on the development of now Hurricane Ida and also the coastal low developing over the New Jersey coastal waters.
For the most part, the coastal low is moving quickly east-northeast and with it, much of the moisture.  This [...]

Medium Range Thoughts

7:33 AM
I wanted to take some time to address some medium range thoughts I have involving the evolution of the pattern for the start of November as I know that sometimes my writing of this time period can be misinterpreted out there on the weather boards and what not.
First, for those new to NY NJ [...]

Pattern becomes congested, cooler conditions on the way

5:15 AM
The upper low that had dominated the weather conditions over the Plains and Mississippi Valley for several days has been ejected to the east and is rapidly weakening.
The remnant short wave trough over the Ohio Valley is still pulling a great deal of moisture to the north into the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. [...]

Tranquil conditions won’t last forever

5:15 AM
I think most would agree that the Labor Day weekend has been the best weather weekend of the summer, which is ironic since this weekend is the last of the “summer” weekends for those in the vacation business.  The air mass will be shift to a more humid pattern once again and with higher [...]

Cold Air Returns, But Not For Long

6:18 AM
The end of the week is expected to be rather quiet, but rather chilly for the middle of March.  A strong cold front will exit the forecast area on Wednesday night with strong Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northern Plains.  At 500 MB, a strong upper low located at 50 [...]



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