Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
4:54 PM
It’s amazing how much weather conditions can change in less than 24 hours! Just this morning, overcast conditions dominated and the regions was still soaked from the five day rainfall event! This afternoon, conditions could not be much different with clear skies and much warmer temperatures as highs blew past forecasted temperatures into the [...]
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9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]
9:04 PM
Tonight, a strong low pressure is driving through the Ohio Valley with steady moderate to heavy rain over much the northern Mid Atlantic. The low pressure system will continue to progress to the north and east overnight towards western New York with periods of heavy rain through early tomorrow morning. The cold front will [...]
11:30 AM
This morning, I discussed in great detail on what the model guidance was suggesting will occur over the next 24 hours that will keep the heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Ida and the Sub Tropical disturbance well to the south. The idea even now in the model guidance is that the disturbance [...]
8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided [...]
8:47 PM
A coastal low is starting to take shape off the Virginia coast this evening while pressure is dropping off the New Jersey coast. This low pressure system is developing under the support of strong PVA or upper level lifting that is diving towards the Mid Atlantic coast from the Ohio Valley. Precipitation throughout the [...]
6:55 AM
Minor development of a disturbance has eyes drawn to the Gulf of Mexico this morning. While much of the Atlantic remains dominated by strong west and southwesterly shear due to a deep trough over the western Atlantic, a minor disturbance is showing some signs of organization in the western Gulf of Mexico.
The disturbance [...]
6:51 AM
No tropical development has been observed this morning and none is likely for at least the next 48 hours. Strong shear associated with a deep trough over the central Caribbean and over the western Atlantic is inhibiting any form of development from the Caribbean to the African coast and will likely continue to do [...]
6:52 AM
The westerly wind shear that has dominated much of the Tropical Atlantic this month has weakened to the point this morning where many locations are not under the influence of this inhibiting factor. However, the lack of disturbances off the African coast and little to no potential disturbances elsewhere continues to keep the Tropical [...]
7:21 AM
There is little change in the overall upper level environment through out the Tropical Atlantic as strong shear continues to dominate. As a result, no significant development has been observed and none is expected over the next 48 hours. A weak disturbance along an old cold front boundary over the western Caribbean will need [...]
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