Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
6:55 AM
Minor development of a disturbance has eyes drawn to the Gulf of Mexico this morning. While much of the Atlantic remains dominated by strong west and southwesterly shear due to a deep trough over the western Atlantic, a minor disturbance is showing some signs of organization in the western Gulf of Mexico.
The disturbance [...]
6:51 AM
No tropical development has been observed this morning and none is likely for at least the next 48 hours. Strong shear associated with a deep trough over the central Caribbean and over the western Atlantic is inhibiting any form of development from the Caribbean to the African coast and will likely continue to do [...]
6:52 AM
The westerly wind shear that has dominated much of the Tropical Atlantic this month has weakened to the point this morning where many locations are not under the influence of this inhibiting factor. However, the lack of disturbances off the African coast and little to no potential disturbances elsewhere continues to keep the Tropical [...]
7:21 AM
There is little change in the overall upper level environment through out the Tropical Atlantic as strong shear continues to dominate. As a result, no significant development has been observed and none is expected over the next 48 hours. A weak disturbance along an old cold front boundary over the western Caribbean will need [...]
12:35 PM
As discussed this morning, as the sun broke through and destabilize the atmosphere, mesoscale boundaries have developed. These boundaries have produced slow moving and strong thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are producing producing very heavy rainfall over western Burlington County and Morris County in New Jersey and throughout eastern Pennsylvania. These thunderstorms are capable of producing [...]
9:25 PM
A very slow moving thunderstorm is dropping south through northern Luzerne County this evening and has produced very heavy rainfall over the towns of Harveys Lake, Hallwood, and locations east of Jamison City. This thunderstorm has been estimated to produce three inches or more over northwestern Luzerne County and will continue to produce heavy [...]
8:07 AM
No significant changes have been observed from yesterday in terms of tropical development. Strong shear is still present over much of the Tropical Atlantic, inhibiting any type of development. I am keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico however. Currently, southwesterly upper level winds will produce too much shear over this region to [...]
8:28 PM
Most of you who read this blog on a daily basis (and thank you for that!) know that I like to rely more on observations, radar data, and satellite data rather than leaning on model guidance. Well, the forecast for tomorrow is no different as we can clearly see a trend beginning to show [...]
6:49 AM
The one obvious observation that stands out on this morning’s IR satellite is that high pressure is in strong control over much of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast this morning. However, another low pressure system and cold front is slowly moving out of the Plains and moving towards the Great Lakes, which will bring [...]
8:33 PM
The severe threat from this line of thunderstorms will end over the next hour along the New Jersey coast. In fact, the overcast conditions observed earlier this evening is already significantly weakening the line of thunderstorms as the atmosphere continues to rapidly stabilize.
For the New York City metro, the Hudson Valley, and Connecticut; the [...]
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