Archive for Ocean County
Flash Flood Watches and Warnings issued throughout the northern Mid Atlantic
Posted by: | Comments03/29/10 7:40 AM
Flash flood watches and warnings are being issued throughout the northern Mid Atlantic. The following are from the National Weather Service detailing these threats!
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ATLANTIC CITY... BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... CAPE MAY COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAPE MAY... CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VINELAND...MILLVILLE... OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOMS RIVER... * UNTIL 715 PM EDT MONDAY * OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN HAS CAUSED RENEWED RISES ON MANY STREAMS IN THE AREA. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY...AS INDICATED BY DOPPLER RADAR...ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUTHERFORD...RIDGEWOOD... RIDGEFIELD...RAMSEY...PARAMUS...LYNDHURST...HACKENSACK... BERGENFIELD... ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ORANGE...NEWARK...MILLBURN... CALDWELL...BLOOMFIELD... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST MILFORD...WAYNE...RINGWOOD... POMPTON LAKES...PATERSON...PASSAIC... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SUMMIT...PLAINFIELD...LINDEN... ELIZABETH... BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THROGS NECK BRIDGE...MOTT HAVEN... EAST TREMONT... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAPPAN...SUFFERN...SLOATSBURG... NYACK...NEW CITY...NANUET...MONSEY...HAVERSTRAW... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...YONKERS...WHITE PLAINS...TARRYTOWN... PORT CHESTER...NORTH TARRYTOWN...NEW ROCHELLE...DOBBS FERRY... * UNTIL 800 AM EDT * AT 554 AM EDT...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE...DUE TO A PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND AND ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS...WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN LATER THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE FURTHER WIDESPREAD URBAN AND SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 48°F;
- Humidity: 87%;
- Heat Index: 48°F;
- Wind Chill: 43°F;
- Pressure: 29.75 in.;
Coastal Storm On Tuesday Night? Not Exactly
Posted by: | Comments7:08 AM
The models are starting to trend a bit too close for comfort for Tuesday night.
A major snow storm for the Carolinas will litterally explode off the coast tomorrow morning and produce a significant snowfall for those locations. As the storm races off to the Northeast, the majority of the heavy precipitation will race off the coast with the low. There is a slight trend west, but we need to keep some facts in perspective.
The trough is going to be in a phase of lifting out of the eastern United States for a short time. This would suggest that the upper level dynamics would be forced east and off the coastal plain.
That being said, let me address some concerns and why there is a divergence in model guidance and the trend west. When a low pressure system explodes as is the case here, the entire upper level structure slows down. In other words, the trough would not lift out of the Northeast as quickly as modeled. Also, the deepening process tends to cause lifting at the mid and lower levels to expand north and westward as the rising motion under the surface low intensifies. What really caught my attention was the ECMWF in the next 24 to 48 hours, closing this low off over North Carolina, which would support the potential of a slower and more westward track.
At this time, I am keeping much of the forecast area dry and cold with an increase chance for snow showers along the New Jerse coast, especially for Ocean County through Cape May County. I think the strengthening low pressure system will support a strong northeasterly fetch over the Atlantic, which would produce Ocean Effect Snow over these locations, possibly up to Monmouth County and Long Island as well if the low bombs out a little faster and deeper.
So yes, the model trends have my attention, and there is something very eary to the January 25, 2000 event that I am seeing in the model guidance. So just beware of the potential, but not much else for the forecast area.
Naturally, the 12Z guidance which will have a pretty good handle on the short wave for tomorrow will be an interesting indicator going forward. If the trend west continues, then I may have to do some pretty fast updating and forecasting tonight then what I was expecting 24 hours ago.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 24°F;
- Humidity: 85%;
- Heat Index: 24°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 29.69 in.;
Snowfall Amounts From Thursday, January 15th 2009
Posted by: | Comments6:51 AM
The following reports are from the National Weather Service for the snow accumulation on Thursday, January 15th 2009:
DELAWARE
…NEW CASTLE COUNTY…
BEAR T 100 PM 1/15
WILMINGTON T 100 PM 1/15 AIRPORT
NEW JERSEY
…ATLANTIC COUNTY…
ATLANTIC CITY T 100 PM 1/15 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
PLEASANTVILLE T 100 PM 1/15
…BURLINGTON COUNTY…
CHESTERFIELD 0.8 1100 AM 1/15
MOUNT HOLLY 0.4 100 PM 1/15 NWS OFFICE
SOUTHAMPTON 0.4 1100 AM 1/15
MOUNT LAUREL 0.2 900 AM 1/15
…GLOUCESTER COUNTY…
NATIONAL PARK T 100 PM 1/15
…MERCER COUNTY…
LAWRENCEVILLE 1.5 1000 AM 1/15
HAMILTON 1.0 1100 AM 1/15
EWING 0.9 1015 AM 1/15
…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…
EDISON 2.3 1100 AM 1/15
…MONMOUTH COUNTY…
HOLMDEL 1.3 1150 AM 1/15
…MORRIS COUNTY…
GREEN POND JUNCTION 1.3 915 AM 1/15
MARCELLA 1.1 1045 AM 1/15
…OCEAN COUNTY…
BAYVILLE 0.8 1200 PM 1/15
…SOMERSET COUNTY…
HILLSBOROUGH 1.5 1035 AM 1/15
HILLSBOROUGH 1.3 1045 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
SOMERSET 1.3 1000 AM 1/15
BRANCHBURG 1.1 1000 AM 1/15
SOMERVILLE 1.1 1000 AM 1/15
BELLE MEAD 0.8 1030 AM 1/15
…WARREN COUNTY…
STEWARTSVILLE 0.9 945 AM 1/15
PENNSYLVANIA
…CHESTER COUNTY…
GLENMOORE 0.5 655 AM 1/15 EAST NANTMEAL TOWNSHIP
…LEHIGH COUNTY…
ALLENTOWN 0.5 100 PM 1/15 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
…MONROE COUNTY…
TOBYHANNA 1.5 910 AM 1/15
…MONTGOMERY COUNTY…
WILLOW GROVE 0.3 1045 AM 1/15
…NORTHAMPTON COUNTY…
BETHLEHEM 1.0 1115 AM 1/15
TATAMY 1.0 1140 AM 1/15
…PHILADELPHIA COUNTY…
PHILADELPHIA T 100 PM 1/15 INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
CONNECTICUT
…FAIRFIELD COUNTY…
NORWALK 2.5 1230 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
DANBURY 2.2 100 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
BRIDGEPORT 2.0 900 AM 1/15 NWS COOP OBSERVER
NEW CANAAN 2.0 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
DARIEN 1.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
MONROE 1.8 130 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
STAMFORD 1.5 336 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
…MIDDLESEX COUNTY…
CLINTON 3.5 150 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
OLD SAYBROOK 3.0 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
HADDAM 1.3 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
…NEW HAVEN COUNTY…
MILFORD 2.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
WOODBRIDGE 2.5 1045 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NORTH HAVEN 2.0 200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
ORANGE 2.0 1045 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
WEST HAVEN 2.0 1045 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NEW HAVEN 1.5 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
SOUTHBURY 1.3 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
BEACON FALLS 0.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
WATERBURY 0.5 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
LISBON 0.3 340 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
OLD LYME 3.7 300 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
STONINGTON 3.0 300 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
GROTON 1.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
COLCHESTER 0.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
NORWICH 0.8 1100 AM 1/15 CT DOT
NEW JERSEY
…BERGEN COUNTY…
RIDGEWOOD 2.1 1200 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
LYNDHURST 1.5 1200 PM 1/15 MEDIA
NORTH ARLINGTON 1.5 1200 PM 1/15 EMERGENCY MANAGER
BERGENFIELD 1.4 1100 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
RAMSEY 1.0 1019 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
PALISADES PARK 0.8 1050 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
…ESSEX COUNTY…
CEDAR GROVE 1.6 1010 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
MONTCLAIR 1.5 200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
NUTLEY 1.4 1200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 1.2 1100 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NEWARK 1.2 700 PM 1/15 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
…HUDSON COUNTY…
JERSEY CITY 1.5 1100 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
HARRISON 1.3 1200 PM 1/15 NWS COOP OBSERVER
KEARNY 1.3 145 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
…PASSAIC COUNTY…
WEST MILFORD 1.3 400 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
…UNION COUNTY…
RAHWAY 2.3 1200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
SPRINGFIELD 1.6 1200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
NEW YORK
…BRONX COUNTY…
WEST FARMS 1.8 100 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
…KINGS COUNTY…
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 2.0 100 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
BROOKLYN 1.8 1200 PM 1/15 NWS COOP OBSERVER
…NASSAU COUNTY…
BELLMORE 2.3 100 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
PLAINVIEW 2.3 1200 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
EAST MEADOW 2.0 100 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
SYOSSET 1.8 630 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
CARLE PLACE 1.6 330 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
GLEN COVE 1.5 730 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
WEST HEMPSTEAD 1.5 530 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
FLORAL PARK 1.4 630 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
ROCKVILLE CENTRE 1.4 115 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
BALDWIN 1.3 445 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
MINEOLA 1.3 1245 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
SEAFORD 1.3 1250 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
BETHPAGE 1.1 100 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
VALLEY STREAM 0.7 1230 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
…NEW YORK COUNTY…
UPPER WEST SIDE 1.6 300 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
MANHATTAN 1.3 1215 PM 1/15 26 FEDERAL PLAZA
CHINATOWN 1.0 200 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.0 100 PM 1/15 CENTRAL PARK ZOO
MANHATTAN 0.7 1045 AM 1/15 78TH STREET + LEXINGTON
…ORANGE COUNTY…
GOSHEN 1.0 945 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 0.9 1100 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
WARWICK 0.8 435 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
…PUTNAM COUNTY…
PUTNAM VALLEY 1.5 800 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
LAKE CARMEL 1.3 655 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
CARMEL 1.3 655 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
MAHOPAC 1.3 655 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
MAHOPAC 1.0 305 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
…QUEENS COUNTY…
BAYSIDE 1.8 1200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
FLUSHING 1.5 1200 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 1.3 100 PM 1/15 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
WOODSIDE 1.0 1130 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NYC/JFK ARPT 0.9 400 PM 1/15 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
…RICHMOND COUNTY…
GREAT KILLS 2.1 815 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
WESTERLEIGH 1.5 1100 AM 1/15 PUBLIC
…ROCKLAND COUNTY…
PIERMONT 1.4 800 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
ORIENT POINT 5.3 320 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
CUTCHOGUE 4.8 600 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
JAMESPORT 4.5 128 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
MOUNT SINAI 4.0 400 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
PORT JEFFERSON 3.5 215 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
UPTON 3.4 425 PM 1/15 NWS FORECAST OFFICE
RIVERHEAD 3.3 745 PM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
MIDDLE ISLAND 3.2 540 PM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
MOUNT SINAI 3.2 435 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
MATTITUCK 3.1 145 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
NORTH BABYLON 3.0 115 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
SOUTH SETAUKET 3.0 215 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
SOUTHAMPTON 3.0 156 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
ISLIP 2.8 330 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
MIDDLE ISLAND 2.8 1230 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
SMITHTOWN 2.7 315 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
CENTERPORT 2.6 600 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
LINDENHURST 2.5 500 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
PATCHOGUE 2.5 645 PM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
SAINT JAMES 2.4 115 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
BABYLON 2.0 300 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
CENTEREACH 2.0 1130 AM 1/15 PUBLIC
ISLIP 2.0 400 PM 1/15 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
WEST ISLIP 2.0 230 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
AMITYVILLE 1.5 400 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
SAYVILLE 1.5 1230 PM 1/15 NWS EMPLOYEE
…WESTCHESTER COUNTY…
WHITE PLAINS 2.8 720 PM 1/15 SPOTTER
YONKERS 2.5 130 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
MOUNT VERNON 2.3 100 PM 1/15 PUBLIC
ARMONK 1.7 1030 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
CONNECTICUT
…LITCHFIELD COUNTY…
COLEBROOK LAKE 0.1 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
NEW YORK
…COLUMBIA COUNTY…
LIVINGSTON 0.3 720 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
TAGHKANIC 0.2 550 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
…DUTCHESS COUNTY…
HOPEWELL JUNCTION 0.9 806 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
POUGHQUAG 0.5 840 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
RHINEBECK 0.2 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
…FULTON COUNTY…
PECK LAKE 0.2 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
…GREENE COUNTY…
EAST JEWETT 1.0 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
MAPLECREST 1.0 810 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
…SCHOHARIE COUNTY…
JEFFERSON 0.5 547 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
LANSING MANOR 0.4 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
…ULSTER COUNTY…
NEW PALTZ 1.0 939 AM 1/15 COCORAHS
SLIDE MOUNTAIN 1.0 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
KINGSTON 0.8 909 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
BEARSVILLE 0.4 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
PHOENICIA 0.3 939 AM 1/15 SPOTTER
SAUGERTIES 0.3 446 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
WHITEPORT 0.3 558 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
WEST SHOKAN 0.2 701 AM 1/15 WXNET 6
A Look Back On Today And What We Can Learn For This Weekend
Posted by: | Comments8:02 PM
The clipper has come and gone, and with it some pretty nice snowfalls over the forecast area. Sure, the clipper from this morning will not go down in any history books, however the develops of this morning does illustrate a point about these clippers when trying to put together a forecast for this weekend.
The relocation and intensification of a surface low along the New Jersey coast can sometimes produce surprises, not picked up on the model guidance all too well, especially a few days out. For example, the impressive snow band that developed over Ocean County this morning.
We also saw the ability for this new Arctic air mass to squeeze out just about every drop of moisture as a band of snow showers dropped from the Hudson Valley through central New Jersey. There appears to be a very weak connection to the St. Lawrence River with this band that formed, however my hypothesis right now was that a small mid level disturbance drove those snow showers for the most part.
So I would caution those that look at Sunday’s forecast as nothing more than a few scattered snow showers to take head with the potential on Sunday night and Monday. Yes, the majority of the guidance is a bit too far east to produce a major or significant snowfall over the forecast area, however the guidance would not have to shift west much to make this a totally different story.
I want to thank everyone who provided observations today and who sent the e-mails. Thank you! I really appreciate it.
Now, I’m going to dive into some model data and try to begin to nail down this forecast for Sunday through Monday. I MAY have an update later this evening depending on how far I get. The last thing I want to do is post a hypothesis without completely researching all avenues.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 15°F;
- Humidity: 52%;
- Heat Index: 15°F;
- Wind Chill: 4°F;
- Pressure: 30.36 in.;
Thoughts On Progress Of Storm
Posted by: | Comments11:38 AM
Thus far, most of what I though was going to happen has happened. The precipitation is expanding eastward at a faster pace than most guidance suggested, the 12Z GFS has finally caught on to that. The temperatures over most locations are behaving exactly as I thought as well, except for southern New Jersey where the low level warming pushed in faster than I though. That advection appears to have hit a wall at the Delaware River though.
There’s a lot of virga going on over southeastern Pennsylvania, especially around Philadelphia, but indications based on the growing suggest snow should be flying over in those locations within the next 60 to 70 minutes. Snow has started to pick up in intensity and coverage over central and northern New Jersey and into the New York City metro.
Precipitation echoes are growing over southern Pennsylvania, filling in the dry slot from this morning.
Now, let’s deal with the warming issue at 850 MB over southwestern Pennsylvania. The pulsing at the 850 MB level is clearing showing up as the 850 MB low develops. What’s interesting is that as quickly as 850 MB temperatures rise, they fall just as fast behind this developing upper low. Further, the warm air is not making much head way north, more east-northeast than anything based on observations.
Now, let me be clear as I had stayed in the radio show last night, I think everyone will see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The question is when and to what extent.
So as of now, I like where I stand for everywhere but southern NJ. A trace of snow at the end is expected south of Ocean County which includes Atlantic City, Wild Wood, and Cape May.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 26°F;
- Humidity: 68%;
- Heat Index: 26°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 30.27 in.;
MM5 From SUNY SB On To Something?
Posted by: | Comments6:40 AM
I don’t always trust MM5 guidance, but take a look at this. Up to this point, the MM5 has actually nailed the position of the low pressure system, the low level cold air, the dew points, and the position of the 850 MB freezing line to a T.
What the model shows for the rest of the day is rather striking. The model tracks the surface low through south-central Ohio through northern West Virginia and along the board of MD/PA then out over southern New Jersey where the low quickly intensifies. The 925 MB temperatures remain below freezing for this event from just north of Philadelphia through the Monmouth/Ocean county boarder and point north and northeast. Interesting view point on this storm, that’s for sure.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 33°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 33°F;
- Wind Chill: 27°F;
- Pressure: 30.22 in.;
Key For Winter Storms Is Strength Of High Pressure
Posted by: | Comments9:55 AM
The main theme and determining factor for the next two storms will play out over our neighbors to the north as strong Arctic high pressure ridges and builds over southeastern Canada and into New England. I’m going to focus on each storm separately in this post, however the overall theme remains the same.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
The model guidance is coming into agreement that a disturbance will develop along the stalling cold front over the southern/central Plains. The low pressure system will travel towards the Ohio Valley on Thursday night and Friday morning and then drive towards the Mid Atlantic coast Friday night through Saturday. Model guidance also generally agrees on a low pressure jump or redevelopment off the New Jersey coast (generally around the coastal waters of Ocean County), and then the low moves to the south of New England.
The main difference in the guidance between the colder and warmer models is the strength of the high pressure system. The fact of the matter is that the 4 MB difference in the model guidance is a big deal in determining of a center of high pressure will be positioned over eastern Ontario at around 1036 MB or if a simple ridge into New England will be present. Why is this important? Well for one, the low level push of cold air on Friday morning will be much stronger and more significant if there is stronger support. Just that aspect alone with make a significant difference in the type of precipitation and rate of change over to rain along the coast. However, the other impact of a stronger high pressure is what this feature would mean aloft. A stronger high pressure system over eastern Ontario would suggest strong convergence and confluence over Quebec and eastern Ontario. In turn, the disturbance that moves towards the Ohio Valley would be forced to the south. Therefore the entire storm track from the surface to 500 MB would be further south and therefore a colder solution.
Right now, I think that southern New Jersey would likely see rain out of this storm on Friday with perhaps a start of snow/sleet for a short time. All locations to the south of Philadelphia generally I think are in the clear here. The CAD even under the colder models just is not strong enough to override the warmer influence of the Atlantic. However, I think locations just away from the coast line including Philadelphia will have a longer period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain before any change over to rain. Further there is a good support for an initial period of heavy snow before a change over begins on Friday night so Friday evening looks to be rather wintery regardless of the track of the storm. Areas to the north and west of Philadelphia and New York City like northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey (especially Sussex County), the Hudson Valley, and interior Connecticut are certainly in game for a significant snowfall from this storm on Friday night and early Saturday morning.
Once I look at all the 12Z guidance, I will likely issue a snow map and potentially an upgrade in the Alert Stage for this storm.
Sunday through Monday morning:
The second storm is becoming even more interesting. Once again I want to focus on the high to the north and specifically on the 2 meter temperatures that are being forecasted leading up to this storm. In previous storms, while we discussed the potential for CAD’s and high pressure positions, the one key aspect that was lacking was true arctic, DRY cold air. Sure, 20′s are cold, but not enough to significantly alter an entire thermal gradient and produce explosion clashes of air masses. However, in this case, we may just have that key ingredient in place. Temperatures via MOS and 2M temperature analysis suggest that northern New York and much of interior New England will have temperatures in the single digits and lower 10′s for highs on Sunday with very dry dew points as well. This air mass is forecasted to be pushed south towards the coastal plain via an impressive CAD signature seen on the GFS, ECMWF, and ensemble guidance. What this set up would suggest is two key factors. One, that the cold, arctic air will not be fast to retreat from the coast line with a north to northeasterly wind supporting continued cold air advection. Two, the low level thermal gradient will be intense and frontogenical lifting from the surface (coastal front) to 850 MB will be very strong. We may see a situation where for example Belmar, NJ is 45 degrees with rain, Freehold is 32 degrees with a mix of snow, sleet, and rain, while Trenton is 28 degrees with snow. That’s not a forecast, but just an example on what the model guidance is hinting at as a very tight and impressive thermal gradient over the coastal plain.
Now, naturally, model guidance has some disagreement in this period. One feature that has me question the speed of the coastal low development despite the strong thermal gradient at the coast is the location of the strongest PVA. The strongest PVA is over the Ohio Valley with a strong upper low over the Great Lakes. While the position of the upper low would strongly support convergence and confluence over eastern Quebece (which would translate to high pressure over northern New England thus the strong CAD), the position and movement of the PVA would support the primary low pressure system over the Ohio Valley and western New York. This would strongly suggest a surface set up of a strong warm front driving from the Kentucky Valley towards the Mid Atlantic with a significant “kink” showing up due to the strong CAD. A weaker low pressure system develops along the Mid Atlantic coast as a result, but the main overwhelming influence on Sunday night is the low to the west at the surface and mid levels. What this may suggest is a wide spread ice event, especially just away from the coast line. However, the set up of the upper level dynamics and jet structure would suggest that the PVA would eventually drive towards the coast and make the coastal the primary. The question is how fast and in what impact for the coastal plain. So naturally there is a lot of questions to be answered here.
May take for now is that this storm will produce accumulating snow and ice for the entire forecast area. There will be a change over to rain over southern New Jersey and the immediate coast line, but at what rate I am uncertain. I think areas just away from the coast and possibly over the Big Cities of Philadelphia and New York City are setting up for a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain before any change over to rain. The change over may be brief and may occur during a period of being dry slotted, so the impact on accumulations my be minimal. The rate of the secondary taking over and the developments of the upper level structure will have to be ironed out for that aspect of the forecast. Those in the interior like northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and interior Connecticut are certainly in game for a significant snow and ice accumulation, how much of each again will be dependent on the issues described above. However, I am becoming confident that these locations will remain below freezing for the entire event.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 39°F;
- Humidity: 93%;
- Heat Index: 39°F;
- Wind Chill: 37°F;
- Pressure: 30.08 in.;
Flooding Across Southern New Jersey
Posted by: | CommentsThe flooding of streets and property is being reported throughout southern New Jersey as over 2 inches of rain has fallen throughout southern New Jersey with doppler estimates of up to 6 inches over parts of Salem and Gloucester Counties. As a result, a flood warning has been issued until 7:00 PM over the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move towards the region which will produce a continuation of flood conditions through the evening hours. Use caution when driving through roadways under water as the water may be deeper than it appears.
The flood warning impacts the following counties:
Atlantic County
Burlington County
Camden County
Ocean County
Salem County
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 66°F;
- Humidity: 88%;
- Heat Index: 66°F;
- Wind Chill: 66°F;
- Pressure: 29.87 in.;
Thunderstorms Over Monmouth and Ocean Counties
Posted by: | CommentsA line of thunderstorms are developing right over Monmouth and Ocean Counties. These thunderstorms are developing due to a developing area of low level convergence along the immediate coast line as seen with the northwesterly winds over interior New Jersey and easterly winds along the coast. The combination of a strong mid level disturbance and this low level convergence is producing the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms over central coastal New Jersey. These thunderstorms will remain below severe levels, but will produce heavy rain, occasional lightning, and wind gusts to 55 mph.
Freehold
77°
Philadelphia
81°
Sussex
73°
Allentown
77°
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