Opinions | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Great conditions to start the week

June 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:42 AM
Through this week, the pattern will exhibit all the possible outcomes that the forecast area will see through this week all of which will be influenced by the position of the trough over the Great Lakes and the ridge over the western Atlantic through this period. Already this morning, we can see the evolution [...]

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And In This Corner!

March 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:57 AM
A battle is setting up of atmospheric proportions between the more progressive Pacific pattern that is being established over much of the CONUS and a very strong negative NAO that is forming over the north Atlantic. For the most part, aside from the negative NAO, there isn’t much in the way of blocking over [...]

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Winter Returns With A Fast And Active Pattern

February 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
If you want to know why the models are having a difficult time with the up coming pattern, just take a look at the water vapor satellite images. There is a train of disturbances on the way that is going to make this forecast a lot more complicated.
The overall theme has not changed [...]

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Thoughts On The Greenland Block Developing

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:12 AM
I don’t think there needs to be any more debate on whether the NAO will go negative or whether a block will form over Greenland. The fact is that the block has already formed over the eastern North Atlantic (think northwestern Europe) and is starting to retrograde towards Greenland.
Now what does this block [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bport, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, Connecticut, Disturbance, dives, fashion, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, greenland, Hartford, high, Islip, least resistance, Long Island, low, low pressure systems, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northwestern europe, Ohio, ontario quebec, opinions, pace, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pressure down, quebec, Reading, relaxation, Ridge, s, Scranton, scream, screams, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, transition, Trough, valleys, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

Difficult Forecast With Huge Bust Potential And Significant Ice And Snow Amounts

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:21 AM
You know, model guidance is suppose to get better and into strong agreement less than 24 hours away from an event. Unfortuantly for the forecast area and this forecaster, that was not the case tonight as the GFS went extreme warm and the NAM/WRF went colder.
So with no trust what so ever in [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, axis, Belmar, Bport, bust, caa, cad, city metro, coast, cold, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convergence, csi, discussion, Disturbance, england, evenings, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, freezing rain, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, illustrations, intensity, Islip, lifting, Long Island, look at the wind, low, lows, map, maps, metros, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mid West, Middlesex, Model Guidance, models, moderation, Monmouth, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north norther, Northeast, observation, observations, omega, opinions, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain mix, Reading, Ridge, ridge axis, s, Scranton, scream, signals, sleet, smq, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, soundings, south, Southwest, Storm, storms, subsidence, Sussex, swatch, systems, temperature, temperatures, tights, Trenton, unfortuantly, valleys, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wrf. Technical Discussions Closed

New York City And Northern Suburbs Of Philadelphia Will Be Hit Hard On Friday

December 18th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:14 AM
The forecast has become much clearer over the past six hours, but there is still a lot that can change for Friday. More on that in a minute.
For today, high pressure will build into the forecast area producing a CAD over the forecast area, which will allow cold air to build into the forecast [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, briefly, c line, cad, caution, clouds, cloudy skies, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, ensembles, evening temperatures, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecast map, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday evening, frontogenesis, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, intensity, Islip, late afternoon, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, margin of error, metros, mid, mid level, Middlesex, Model Guidance, models, Monmouth, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, northern monmouth county, opinions, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Reading, Scranton, six hours, sleet, snow, snow event, snowfall, soundings, south, Storm, storms, Sussex, tights, Trenton, warm, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Sneaky Arctic Air And The Storm Track For Next Week

December 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:12 AM
Right off the bat, I want to say I don’t have a lot of confidence in the medium and extended forecast for this forecast area and much of the Mid Atlantic. There is a rule I learned long ago from a great professor I had in college, beware of temperature guidance and the ability [...]

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The Roller Coaster Begins

December 7th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Are you ready for some volatile weather! Well, you better be because over the span of the next three days we are going to see a large variety of weather conditions over the forecast area.
For the rest of today, the coastal low that has redeveloped off the coast has continued to deepen rapidly, producing a [...]

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And So It Begins

November 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I had a tough time thinking of the right title for this post without producing a great deal of hype. At first thought I wanted to go with “the week of storms”, but that was too dramatic and over the top. Then, I thought, “winter begins”, but I could see the emails in my box [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bport, Bridgeport, brunt, caa, coast, coastal plain, cold, Connecticut, discussion, Disturbance, dive right, dives, east, ecmwf, england, ensembles, evenings, explaination, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, heart, high, intensification, Islip, lifting, light precipitation, Long Island, low, lows, mb temperatures, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, moderate rainfall, moderation, monday morning, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, Ohio, opinions, outlier, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, shape, sleet, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, south, Southeast, Southeast Coast, steady precipitation, Storm, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Trough, troughs, ukmet, warm, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter event. Technical Discussions Closed

Thanksgiving Weekend Thankfully Not Too Chilly

November 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The pattern will be going into a brief state of reloading and relaxation for the last weekend of November, Thanksgiving weekend, and for the first five days of December. As a result, the storm track I’m expecting will run from the Mississippi Valley to over the coastal plain and into interior New England. In other [...]

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