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Tag Archive for 'pacific northwest'

Colder Pattern Evolution Begins

5:15 AM
This morning, the occluded front that brought periods of heavy rain to the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas yesterday, is now well off the coast.  The water vapor satellite image this morning clearly shows dry, sinking air is now in place over much of the Mid Atlantic, which will produce dry conditions [...]

Cooler, Fall conditions return

5:15 AM
The upper trough that finally forced a cold front off the East coast on Thursday morning will continue to slide to the east of the Mid Atlantic by this afternoon.  The trough axis will be off the New Jersey coast  this morning and passing the end of the Long Island Sound by this afternoon. [...]

Working The Night Away

9:46 PM
Good evening everyone!
The trend by the model guidance clearly has been away from a significant storm for Friday afternoon and evening.  The reason why spands several reasons.  The first is that the disturbance associated with the clipper is actually much weaker than any guidance suggested.  Notice in the days following, the GFS, ECMWF, and [...]

Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance.  When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.  
Let’s think about this set up for a second.  
One, [...]

Thoughts For The Next Few Weeks

1:10 PM
I can bet there will be some out there screaming that winter is over and January is a warm month after the end of this up coming week.  A large ridge is going to build over the eastern third of the nation while an upper low digs into Alaska shutting down the northwesterly flow [...]

Warm Start To Next Week Gives Way To Cold And Stormy End

7:25 AM
The forecast area remains locked in a roller coaster of temperatures with wild swings from warm to cold.  Another rise and fall in temperatures is expected for the next week as well.  
A ridge will continue to build at 500 MB as a trough is carved out over the Pacific Northwest and Plains.  The [...]

A Break In The Pattern, Not Broken Pattern

As the storm races towards the Canadian Maritimes, cold air will rush into the forecast area once again with temperatures falling back to slightly below to near normal conditions for the weekend.  However, there are larger changes going on at 500 MB.
The overall 500 MB pattern will briefly readjust with a trough over the West [...]

Thoughts For Next Week

While I am breaking down the current radar and satellite images, I think it is a good time to discuss the latest guidance with the set up for next week.
First and foremost, it is NOT wise to try to figure out the rain/snow line positions of any storm 4 or 5 days out.  You can [...]

Active Set Up Continues To Unfold

As the models waver from run to run in solutions, one constant is seen going through next week.  The first is the reposition of the upper low over Canada from northern Canada to southern and southeastern Canada while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.  
So what does this mean for the forecast area?  Well, [...]

Pattern Gets Active End Of Week, Pattern Shift Begins

The patience of many will be tested this week, at least those that still look at the GFS beyond 180 hours.  This week is the week of pattern shifts and changes, which will lead to one very tricky storm event for the end of the week.  However, before I get to that, let me explain [...]



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