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Long Range Thoughts

September 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:15 AM
There is something brewing in the Tropical Pacific and it is called an MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation. To get a great overview on the technical side of what’s going on, I want to introduce you to a meteorologist with the initials HM who has written a great post on Eastern US Weather.
To break this [...]

Tags: cold pool, convection, date line, El Nino, gulf of alaska, initials, madden julian oscillation, meteorologist, mjo, Model Guidance, New York Winter, nino event, pdo, Philadelphia Winter, polar air masses, screams, snow lovers, something brewing, sst anomalies, taking shape, Tropical Pacific, upper level pattern, western canada. Technical Discussions Closed

Is Winter Over? Not By A Long Shot!

February 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails the past 24 hours if this is it? Is this the big storm and then winter is over? Well, let’s look at all the data. I know many people like to focus on the Pacific and only the Pacific, but I like to take a more round about [...]

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Cold And Stormy Pattern To Return For New Year

December 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
There are growing indications that 2009 will come in with a bang, at least in the terms of weather. There are signals that are becoming much more stronger for a cold and stormy pattern to develop in the last few days of December and through much of early January. The first key is that [...]

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Moderation Is On The Way

October 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Don’t like this blast of winter so early? Well, just wait a few days!
The upper level pattern will begin to relax going through the weekend and into next week. As the AO remains positive (though falling fast), the PDO still calls the shots. A trough will dig into West this weekend, which will allow a [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, ao, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, cold, cold front, Connecticut, Fall, few days, Freehold, front, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, pdo, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Reading, relaxation, Ridge, saturday afternoon, Scranton, Sussex, Trough, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

Long Range Thoughts

October 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I want to continue the winter discussion from the overall forecast that I made with actually following up on the forecast. The main issue we need to keep an eye on is the stratosphere, as any indication of a significant drop of temperatures over North America will basically kill any potential for a negative AO [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, ao, area, asian side, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgrt, coldest temperatures, Connecticut, discussion, epo, Fall, favorable environment, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, magnitude, Maine, minimum temperature, n normal, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, northern hemisphere, observation, October, pdo, pdo index, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Reading, s, Scranton, stratosphere, stratospheric temperature, Sussex, temperature, temperature anomalies, temperatures, Trough, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter outlook. Technical Discussions Closed

My Winter Forecast For 2008/09

October 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

It is once again that time of year where snow lovers across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic have one question and one desire. Will my back yard see plenty of white or brown mud?
Before I go into detail about my winter forecast, I want to explain how I developed and produced the theory for [...]

Tags: area, Atlantic, axis, blocking, cold, CONUS, Cuba, Disturbance, east, england, enso, evenings, Fall, features work, forecast, forecaster, front, greenland, guidance, height anomalies, hot, hot chocolate, Hurricane, indirect impacts, interaction, issue at hand, japan, Jets, lows, Mexico, Mississippi, mistake, models, moisture, nao, normal, north, north observation, Northeast, observations, October, Ohio, one desire, opinions, pdo, Philadelphia, plains, precipitation, predominant characteristics, pressure changes, Reading, Ridge, s, satellite, satellite data, siberia, signs, snow, snow lovers, Southeast, Storm, storms, stratosphere, stratospheric temperature, subsidence, synoptic, synoptic features, systems, Teleconnection, teleconnection indices, Teleconnections, temperature, temperature and pressure, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, Trough, warm, watches, weather, weather enthusiast, west, wills, Winter. General Discussions Closed

Working On Winter Forecast

October 18th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I’ll be working on the winter forecast through this afternoon and evening hours. At this point I have about 15 pages written about this winter. Don’t worry, I’m going to condense it after I’m done.
I know the big tool to use in long range forecasting is looking at an index, say the PDO, and [...]

Tags: confusion, correlations, enso, evening hours, evenings, excerpts, forecast, long range forecast, mistake, pdo, previous years, sun spot, weather, weather boards, Winter. General Discussions Closed

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