NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Wet rush hour marks the start of soaked weekend

3:50 PM
The rain is here and it is not going to be stopping any time soon through this weekend, which will be a perfect time to catch up on some movies, a good book, or perhaps finally conquer a very difficult video game.  What ever you do this weekend, it likely will not be done [...]

Significant winter storm expected Wednesday night through Friday

10:55 PM
There are times when as a forecaster, I look at a water vapor satellite and everything just comes together for me in terms of how I think this storm will evolve.  Usually it is a matter of just sitting back and watching the water vapor loop again and again, just observing the way the [...]

End of wintery pattern in site

8:07 AM
Premium Post
The pattern for February has certainly delivered as advertised, producing near record if not surpassing record snowfalls throughout the region.  However, like any other pattern, this pattern will come to an end and the clues to the pattern ending are already showing up.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 11%;Heat Index: 26°F;Wind Chill: 12°F;Pressure: [...]

Evening Thoughts- fine tuning my thoughts

9:58 PM
As expected, the models are waffling a bit and have trended north and then south.  The latest 00Z NAM appears to be trending south as well, but the let’s look at what if anything has changed in the set up leading up to this storm.
First and foremost, the Sub Tropical disturbance is very [...]

Active Sub Tropical Jet to play important role next several weeks

8:05 AM
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is supporting yet another cold morning with temperatures in the teens and lower 20’s.  Although cold, the air mass is already starting to moderate from the Arctic extremes experienced this past weekend, especially over the northern tier.
The water vapor this morning illustrates that developing Sub Tropical jet [...]

Overview of the Snowfall on Saturday Evening 01/30/10

9:45 AM
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Yesterday, a Sub Tropical disturbance intensified over the Tennessee Valley and enhanced a surface low that moved from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina coastal waters by Saturday evening.
The forecasting of this storm via model guidance was relatively poor for portions of Southern New Jersey as most guidance had less than four [...]

Bitter cold remains as storm exits

9:27 AM
The low pressure system that brought over 6 inches of snow to many locations throughout southern New Jersey is exiting into the Atlantic.  Behind it, an Arctic air mass remains in control with temperatures in the single digits and teens for morning lows.
High pressure will continue to build into the region with decreasing winds [...]

Southern New Jersey has potential for more impressive snowfall

9:18 PM
Important develops are starting to come together that has the potential to produce a significantly higher snowfall total that I or anyone else originally thought.
The radar this evening is showing signs of pushing slightly further north than the guidance has been forecasting.  My focus is over the southern Ohio Valley where an area of snow [...]

Uncertainty grows for weekend forecast

7:00 AM
I would love to be able to say I know exactly what is going to transpire over the next five days and I am extremely confident in the forecast I am going to issue.  The problem is that I can’t say that and likely won’t be able to say that until Thursday night.  Over [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]