Presence | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tropical Storm Danny Strengthens and other thoughts

August 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:09 AM
Tropical Storm Danny continues to strengthen this morning with convection developing around the new low level center of circulation. This is a VERY important development in the formation of Danny and future track of Danny. Tropical Storm Danny has reformed further to the north and is moving northwest at 10 mph.
For one, I think [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, circulation, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, Freehold, good chance, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, hurricane strength, interior locations, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, mb level, Mets, Model Guidance, moderate rainfall, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, nuts, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, presence, rainfall event, rapid pace, Reading, Scranton, speculation, suburbs of philadelphia, Sussex, sweat, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, transition, tropical storm danny, Trough, western suburbs, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

An important day for the rest of the week

August 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:15 AM
The events that unfold today to the north of the Caribbean Islands will be key to the forecast going forward. This morning the tropical disturbance clearly has a developed circulation at the mid levels and may have finally established a circulation at the surface. Consider the development of this disturbance like a drill digging [...]

Tags: Africa, Alabama, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, Caribbean, Caribbean Islands, Caribbean Sea, circulation, Citi Field, clue, cmc, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, core system, Florida, Freehold, Georgia, Great Lakes, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, kick start, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Louisiana, Mets, Mexico, mid level, mid levels, Mississippi, Model Guidance, nam, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, presence, rapid development, Reading, satellite presentation, Scranton, South Carolina, Sussex, Texas, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Disturbance, tropical disturbances, tropical system, Trough, ukmet, Virginia, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, August 26 2009

August 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:45 AM
All eyes are on a tropical disturbance that continues to become better organized this morning. The latest air craft observations and local observations still suggest that a low level circulation has yet to form. However, there is clearly a mid level circulation that is of warm core origin.
The presence of a mid level circulation [...]

Tags: Africa, air craft, Alabama, Atlantic, Caribbean, Caribbean Sea, coastal plain, favorable conditions, few days, Florida, forecast area, Georgia, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, heavy rains, hurricane danny, Louisiana, Mexico, Mid Atlantic, mid level, Mississippi, Model Guidance, North Carolina, presence, Rainfall Amounts, South Carolina, sunday morning, surface circulation, Texas, Tropical Atlantic, Tropical Disturbance, tropical disturbances, Tropical Storm, tropical system, tropical weather update, Virginia, west northwest. Technical Discussions Closed

Winter Returns, Does A Storm Follow?

February 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:52 AM
Winter is not going to go out without a fight, which may mean March comes in like a Lion. Before discussing the potential of the storm, let’s look at how the cold air gets into the forecast area first.
There is very strong agreement that a strong cold front will drive towards the East coast [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplification, arctic air, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, band, Belmar, Bport, brunt, canada, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, crash, discussion, Disturbance, dives, east, evening hours, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday morning, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, intensification, Islip, jet stream, Jets, level jet, Long Island, low, lows, march comes in like a lion, moisture, morning lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northern, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, polar air, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, presence, pva, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday morning, Scranton, showers, signs, slides, snow, Southeast, Storm, storms, suggestion, surface temperatures, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tilt, time of year, Trough, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

Tricky Forecast, To Snow Or Not To Snow

December 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:55 AM
Going into this period, I was hoping that model guidance would improve in sheilding some light on the events that will play out on Friday. To some extent, the guidance has given me a better idea of what to expect here. The general consencious is that the clipper to drive towards the Great Lakes [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bridgrt, clipper, coast, Coastal Storm, cold, cold friday, Connecticut, delmarva, delmarva coast, delmarva peninsula, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, east, eastern Long Island, ecmwf, Energy, energy transfers, epo, extent, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday evening, friday morning, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, initial boundary, initial position, intensity, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Milliville, mistake, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, New JersSussex, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, presence, pumps, pva, Rain, Ridge, s, Scranton, showers, sleet, snow, snow showers, snowfall, south, Storm, storms, surfaces, surprise, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, valleys, Virginia, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Closed

Thoughts Before Bed

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:16 PM
There are some trends that I want to discuss before heading off to bed with the model guidance in general.
So far with the 00Z guidance tonight, we continue to see some interesting trends for the forecast area. One feature I want to key on is the development and sustained presence of strong high [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, canada, christmas, cold, cold front, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, crash, discussion, Disturbance, east, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, lawrence valley, level cad, Long Island, low, low pressure systems, lows, Model Guidance, models, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, north, observation, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, presence, Reading, s, Scranton, southeastern canada, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, tomorrow morning, tuesday night, valleys, warm, warm temperatures, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Rainy End To Weekend Setting Up

November 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is a lot to go over this morning in regards to this period and the medium range period. Let’s dive into what should be a roller coaster of temperatures!
The first feature I want to detail is the stronger than forecasted CAD over the forecast area. The CAD, which overall is still weak, extends [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, central hudson, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, current temperatures, dew points, dives, elevation, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, medium range, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, northeastern Pennsylvania, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, presence, Rain, Reading, roller coaster, Scranton, showers, sleet, snow, snow sleet, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, waffling, west, wet bulb, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

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