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Tag Archive for 'qpf'

Major winter storm on the way

December 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:14 AM
As I woke up this morning to look at the 06Z guidance, I had to laugh to myself. Models converging on an idea for this storm? Yeah right! Of course, who thought this was going to be easy.
This morning I went to a tried and true method that I learned back in college and [...]

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Evening Update- another disturbance on the way

June 10th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:13 PM
A disturbance along the stationary front is approaching the forecast area this evening with an area of showers and thunderstorms. Given the heavy rain that has fallen, flood warning have been issued for parts of southeastern Pennsylvania this evening.
These showers will continue to progress eastward through the overnight hours and will be aided [...]

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Active mid week expected

June 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:45 PM
The showers and thunderstorms over the Ohio Valley, Mid West, and southern Great Lakes can be considered a calling card for what is to come through the next three days for the forecast area. I’m sure the first feature that draws your attention is the explosive shades of yellow, orange, and red over the [...]

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Another healthy shot of heavy rain for the end of the week

April 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:25 AM
The pattern for early April has brought a good dose of rainfall to the forecast area and the pattern looks to continue through next weekend as well.
The lasting influences of the storm for today will continue to support a waning northwesterly flow over the forecast area on Thursday with generally clear skies and cool [...]

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Cold air mass in control next two days

March 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:10 AM
If you go outside, you probably won’t believe that the Mets and Yankees start playing real baseball games in roughly two weeks! A strong arctic high pressure is positioned over Quebec this morning and supporting a cold, dense air mass over the forecast area this morning. Temperatures this morning have ranged from the lower [...]

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Marine air mass keeps region cool through next week

March 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
The model guidance has really come into strong agreement over the past 24 hours with respect to the overall upper level pattern and the development of surface features through the middle of next week. There are two key players that will drive the up coming pattern for the CONUS. The first is the strong [...]

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00Z Model Guidance Thoughts

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:28 PM
The 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS has come out for the time period of Sunday afternoon through Monday night with very similar solutions and additional support is gaining for a major snow storm for the immediate coast of the forecast area.
The latest radar trends and satellite images strongly point to a developing and intensifying [...]

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A Not So Impressive Storm

February 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:43 AM
The hysteria on the internet about a significant winter storm seems to be dying off by the day as the models get a handle on a rather progressive pattern. My overall thoughts have not changed with how I think this storm will unfold, which is a storm track to the south and east with [...]

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Evening Thoughts For This Weekend

February 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:24 PM
I’ve looked at the 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance, and frankly I haven’t changed my thoughts on the situation leading up to Sunday. The upper level features and storm track from 00Z to 12Z on the ECMWF hasn’t changed much, however the guidance does include higher QPF for the forecast area. Meanwhile, the GFS [...]

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Another Tough Forecast On The Way

January 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
You know, I would love to forecast an all snow event at some point. Just look at the QPF, multiply by 10 or 12, then here’s the snow map. Oh no, not this winter. haha
Model guidance is still all over the place on exactly how this storm will play out for the forecast area, [...]

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