Archive for Rain
Premium Discussion Overview for Friday, July 16 2010
Posted by: | CommentsThe hot summer of 2010 continues, however today brings a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as well. Plus there are a few interesting disturbances I’m watching in the Tropical Atlantic. Are you a Premium Member? Get the details on Premium Membership here!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 75°F;
- Humidity: 83%;
- Heat Index: 75°F;
- Wind Chill: 75°F;
- Pressure: 30.03 in.;
Live Coverage of Severe Threat For Saturday June 5th, 2010
Posted by: | Comments
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 82°F;
- Humidity: 61%;
- Heat Index: 85°F;
- Wind Chill: 82°F;
- Pressure: 29.73 in.;
Dry but windy conditions expected for the mid week
Posted by: | Comments04/27/10 3:56 PM
As the area of low pressure that produced periods of rain the past couple of days continues to slowly exit into the Atlantic, winds will begin to increase from the northwest.
The winds will be increasing due to an intensifying due to a strengthening pressure gradient between the exiting area of low pressure and the strong high pressure over the central Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, while I expect dry conditions tonight on through the end of the week, winds will remain rather strong around 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph from the northwest. I expect the strongest winds to be along the coast and over the coastal waters.
Otherwise, quiet conditions can be expected for the rest of the week with temperatures moderating to near normal on Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60′s. However, a significant change in the pattern takes hold by Friday to produce a much more summer like pattern.
On Friday, an upper level ridge and the surface ridge will reposition off the East coast. The position of both of these features will lead to a southwesterly flow that will remain through the weekend and into early next week. As the southwesterly flow is established; warm, humid, and unstable air will build into the northern Mid Atlantic with high temperatures in the 70′s and 80′s and dew points potentially breaking 60 degrees. Meanwhile, weak disturbances will attempt to move over the ridge leading to the threat of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. There is some potential for the thunderstorms to become severe if the right ingredients come together. This will have to be watched carefully.
For a detailed seven day forecast, go here!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 57°F;
- Humidity: 47%;
- Heat Index: 57°F;
- Wind Chill: 52°F;
- Pressure: 29.38 in.;
Significant rain event on the way
Posted by: | Comments4:19 PM
Clouds are already building over much of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon in response to the increasing moisture from the Atlantic as the high pressure system that has produced great weather conditions the past few days now exits into the Atlantic. A weak mid level disturbance was able to use some of this moisture advection to produce a few isolated showers along the New Jersey coast. These showers will remain a threat along much of the coast through this evening.
The far reaching developing storm over the Plains is currently blocked from moving further east into the Great Lakes due to a strong upper low over the Canadian Maritimes. This upper low is a direct result of the east based negative NAO pattern over much of the northern Atlantic.
A warm front will move north towards the northern Mid Atlantic coast by tomorrow afternoon with continued overcast skies and developing showers. The showers will be isolated at first in the late morning hours and then slowly increase in coverage as lifting increases along the coast tomorrow afternoon. The warm front will remain along the New Jersey coast and south of Long Island through the day on Friday as a surface low develops over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. High pressure positioned over Quebec will remain in place through Friday evening and support a persistent east to northeasterly wind.
On Saturday, the surface low will move towards the New Jersey coast with rain, becoming very heavy, by Saturday afternoon and continuing on through Sunday morning. The upper low associated with this storm will begin to capture the surface low and slow the progression of the surface low. Meanwhile, high pressure will remain over the Canadian Maritimes, enhancing the pressure gradient which will support strong east to northeasterly winds of 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts along the coast. As the upper low capture the surface low, the storm will stall and remain over the region through Sunday with scattered showers lingering over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area through Sunday, Monday, and into Tuesday morning.
The latest guidance strongly suggests that rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can be expected throughout the region with as much as 5 inches in a few isolated locations where heavy downpours occur via elevated thunderstorms. This storm will be capable of flash flooding of rivers, streams, and urban locations throughout the northern Mid Atlantic. Also, the strong winds will be capable of minor wind damage, rapidly reduced visibility, and coastal flooding.
The good news with patterns that exhibit blocking is that once the storm leaves, a long stretch of dry, comfortable, and warm conditions can be expected. From Tuesday evening on through the end of next week, high pressure will take hold and keep much of the northern Mid Atlantic dry and very pleasant.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 44°F;
- Humidity: 70%;
- Heat Index: 44°F;
- Wind Chill: 40°F;
- Pressure: 30.01 in.;
Great weekend conditions return to northern Mid Atlantic!
Posted by: | Comments7:27 AM
The return of weather that you can enjoy outside has returned and just in time for the weekend! The gloomy conditions over the past few days have now exited well into the Atlantic as an area of low pressure continues to slowly exit towards Europe.
This morning, high pressure over the Ohio Valley is in control and will remain in control over the next several days. The air mass with this high pressure system has strong ties to the Pacific, which means the air mass will warm rather easily in the afternoon. Many locations throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas will warm into the upper 40′s to lower 50′s, ensuring that any snow left on the ground will continue to melt rapidly.
It should be noted that this high pressure system and the associated upper level ridge has actually been the same high pressure system that has sat over much of the West coast and Rockies for the past six weeks. This is basically the calling card of the end of the active winter pattern for much of the Mid Atlantic and spells a slow but steady return of Spring.
Dry and tranquil conditions will continue on through Thursday morning as high pressure drifts into the Atlantic. A strong Sub Tropical disturbance will develop over the southern Plains and draw moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure system is expected to track towards the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday with wide spread rain throughout the region. This low pressure system is expected to hang around the Mid Atlantic for a long portion of next weekend with rain, overcast skies, and cool conditions. Flash flooding may be a significant problem for many locations.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 28°F;
- Humidity: 54%;
- Heat Index: 28°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 30.16 in.;
SNOW AND RAIN MAP THROUGH THIS EVENING
Posted by: | Comments6:24 AM
Forecast details on the way, but I wanted to get this map out as soon as possible. The storm has tracked slightly closer to the coast, leading to changes in the forecast.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 33°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 33°F;
- Wind Chill: 23°F;
- Pressure: 29.6 in.;
Morning Model Thoughts
Posted by: | Comments12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes. The basis of these thoughts started with the warming in the stratosphere and how eventually these changes in combination with a negative QBO phase in the atmosphere would impact every aspect of the northern Hemisphere from the MJO waves to the developing El Nino, and finally the pattern for much of North America. I won’t go into the details, but they can be found here.
This morning, the 12Z guidance has come in with a strong declaration that the cold pattern I’ve been foreseeing is on the way. This new pattern will take shape in stages and not in one quick change, which is understandable given the current Pacific set up and the state of the MJO progressing into stage 6.
This post will not going into the details of the 12Z GFS/pare GFS guidance, but the fact that these models and the 00Z ECMWF all point to one major pattern shift. A shift from a positive EPO pattern to a negative EPO pattern. This shift strongly suggest a ridge is going to build over Alaska and western Canada, and as a result, cold air will be shunted south and east into the United States. Even more impressive this morning is that all model guidance strongly suggest that a cross polar flow will set up and that means Arctic air.
Now, the initial push of the Polar and Arctic air masses will likely be directed along the Rockies, Plains, and western Great Lakes as the trough axis will be over the western Gulf of Mexico. The storm around December 5th will bring rain to much of the northern Mid Atlantic, but will also represent another step towards the cold air over the Plains to bleed towards the East. This will be a slow process. However, this sets the stage for a more significant storm for the December 8th to 10th period, that’s I’ve been concerned about. The northern Mid Atlantic will be on the edge of a new Arctic air mass and the thermal gradient will be very strong by this time period. With a new trough in place and a strong ridge over Alaska and western Canada, plenty of strong disturbances will be diving south from the Polar Branch. Meanwhile, the MJO data this morning is hinting the Sub Tropical jet stream will become more active by this time period as well. Fresh cold air, active jet streams, tight thermal gradients: all ingredient for a storm. The question is not if, but when and I’d mark the period surround December 10th as the when.
You can beat I’ll be chewing on these thoughts as I’m feasting on my turkey!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 51°F;
- Humidity: 87%;
- Heat Index: 51°F;
- Wind Chill: 48°F;
- Pressure: 29.91 in.;
Evening Update- Dry conditions for Game 4 of World Series
Posted by: | Comments6:00 PM
Radar-NWS
The rain from this morning has exited the coast and dry conditions are expected for tonight’s big baseball game in Philadelphia. Light winds from the north can be expected through the game along with temperatures in the lower 50′s falling into the upper 40′s.
High pressure will continue to build into the forecast area tonight through tomorrow with cool and dry conditions. A shift in the pattern will develop by Tuesday as the Polar jet stream becomes the dominant influence over the Great Lakes, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast. This means the for the most part the disturbances that dive south from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic will remain dry. Temperatures through next week will average 3 to 6 degrees below normal with many locations struggling to break out of the 40′s and 50′s. Frankly, I would not be surprised if the entire forecast area is stuck in the 40′s one of these days as a redeveloping coastal low kicks east and produces a long stretch of low clouds over both the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.
I continue to remain suspicious of a potential coastal storm for the end of next week. A series of strong disturbances will be diving south towards the Mid Atlantic coast towards the end of next week, and I can certainly make a case for one of these disturbance to produce a strong coastal storm off the Mid Atlantic coast. The GFS and ECMWF continue to waver on this potential but are hinting at it. So we’ll have to keep an eye on.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 53°F;
- Humidity: 54%;
- Heat Index: 53°F;
- Wind Chill: 53°F;
- Pressure: 30.16 in.;
NFL Football Forecast
Posted by: | Comments9:32 PM
This weekend is packed full of NFL action today as the Giants battle the Eagles in Philadelphia and the NY JETS battle the Dolphins at the Meadow Lands!
GAINTS VS EAGLES AT 1 PM: Rain will linger through the start of the game with drying conditions through the early afternoon. Winds will be from the northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower 50′s through the game.
Jets host the Dolphins AT 1 PM: Rain will end by the start of the game with drying conditions through much of the game. Winds will be from the northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will fall from the mid 50′s into the lower 50′s through the game.
The overall theme is that rain will be ending from northwest to southeast as the afternoon begins. The low pressure system that is producing the rain will exit east with limited impact to playing conditions after the 1st quarter.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 51°F;
- Humidity: 76%;
- Heat Index: 51°F;
- Wind Chill: 48°F;
- Pressure: 30.11 in.;
Halloween Forecast Update
Posted by: | Comments7:48 AM
An approaching cold front will cause clouds to increase through the day, however rain will hold off until the evening hours. The best time to head out is in the afternoon with temperatures in the 60′s and 70′s. Winds will be from the south around 10 to 20 mph. The cold front will move through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area in the evening hours with scattered showers followed by steadier rain after midnight.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 51°F;
- Humidity: 81%;
- Heat Index: 51°F;
- Wind Chill: 51°F;
- Pressure: 30.3 in.;
Freehold
57°
Albany
59°
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