Range Model | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Models come into agreement with back door cold front

March 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:10 AM
It’s always nice for a forecaster when all the medium range model guidance comes into a general agreement in any situation, especially with details of a back door cold front in the Spring. There is now strong support to push an impressive back door cold front through the entire forecast area on Sunday evening, [...]

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Thoughts On This Weekend Through Next Week

January 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:38 PM
The forecast for this coming weekend into next week is rather tricky to nail down. I don’t trust the details that the medium range model guidance is showing, especially in terms of precipitation amounts. I’ve been studying the February 15-18,2003 storm. Now, that does NOT mean I am thinking of similar precipitation totals (at [...]

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Active Set Up Continues To Unfold

December 6th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As the models waver from run to run in solutions, one constant is seen going through next week. The first is the reposition of the upper low over Canada from northern Canada to southern and southeastern Canada while a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest.
So what does this mean for the forecast area? Well, [...]

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Evening Thoughts

December 5th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Some interesting data to look at this evening for sure!
First let me discuss the clipper situation. The model guidance is still having some difficulty in placing the exact location of where redevelopment and the track of this coastal low pressure system on Sunday morning, which is becoming slightly surprising. Frankly, I think the forecasting [...]

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Cold, Wintery, And Very Difficult Forecast Period

November 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Making this forecast has been and will continue to be very difficult. I want to touch on some important themes with the pattern as a whole and the state of the model guidance before diving into the actual forecast.
I believe we are about to enter a significant cold, and stormy pattern for much of the [...]

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Long Range Model Thoughts

November 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know a lot of people are freaking out about the GFS forecast runs past 240 hours from the 12Z to 00Z of last night. I want to say a word on this situation, which shows a “warm” solution setting up. First, please for your own sake, stop yourself from looking at these solutions, cold [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, arctic cold, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, cold, Connecticut, deep trough, ecmwf, enso, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, medium range, Model Guidance, model output, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, range model, Reading, sake, Scranton, seasonal trends, Storm, storms, Sussex, Trough, troughs, two thirds, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

Stormy Sunday, But Not Snowy

November 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Yesterday there was a lot of excitement when the medium range model guidance, especially the ECMWF produced a rather snowy solution for the coastal storm on Sunday. Even with the exciting model output, I had my significant doubts on this system playing out due to some of the points I made, one of which was [...]

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