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Pattern change or no pattern change, what is going on right now

January 7th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

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9:25 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning. My primary focus is going to be on the pattern relaxation and then amplification for the medium and long range, but I want to touch on the light snow event for tonight into tomorrow first.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 32°F;Humidity: 59%;Heat Index: 32°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 29.92 [...]

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Tracking the MJO- influence on the long range forecast

January 6th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 AM
The MJO is on the move and bless the models, they are trying to handle that tricky feature as best as it can. Let’s take a look at where the MJO is today and where I think it is going.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 58%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 16°F;Pressure: 29.75 in.;

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplitude, Atlantic City, atlantic city weather, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, cape may nj weather, Citi Field, coastal waters, cold front, Connecticut, craigles nyc, current state, current weather in new york, dominance, Freehold, gfs, Great Lakes, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, hypothesis, Islip, jackson nj weather, la nina, lightning, long beach island nj weather, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Long Island weather, manhattan weather, marine weather nj, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Mid Atlantic weather, mjo, moderation, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, new jersey shore weather, New Jersey snowstorms, New Jersey Weather, New York, New York City, New York City Weather, New York snow storms, New York Weather, new york weather today, Newark, newark nj, newark nj weather, nj local weather, NJ Weather, nj weather 10 day forecast, nj weather forecast, nj weather radar map, nj weather report, normal temperature, normal temperatures, northern Mid Atlantic, northern Mid Atlantic weather, ny weather 10 day, ny weather forecast, ny weather forecast 10 day, ny weather map, nyc weather map, ocean city, ocean city nj, pa weather alerts, pa weather forecast, pa weather map, pa weather radar, pa weather report, past new york weather reports, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania weather, phase 4, phase 5, Philadelphia, philadelphia pa weather, Philadelphia Weather, Phillies, point pleasant nj, Polar Jet Stream, Poughkeepsie, princeton nj weather news 12 nj weather, Reading, relaxation, Scranton, scranton pa weather, seaside nj weather, snow, snow storms, stage 5, strong, surface temperatures, Sussex, temperature regimes, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, trenton nj weather forecast, Trough, weather and nyc, weather doylestown pa, weather easton pa, weather edison nj, weather for nyc, weather for pa, weather forecast pa, weather in new york, weather in nj, weather in nj today, weather in ny, weather in nyc, weather in nyc today, weather in pa, weather indiana pa, weather map, weather montclair nj, weather new brunswick nj, weather new york, weather new york city, weather newark nj, weather nyc, weather nyc forecast, weather nyc ny, weather ocean city nj, weather of nj, weather of nyc, weather princeton nj, weather scranton pa, weather union nj, weather wayne nj, White Plains, widlwood nj, Wild Wood, wild wood nj weather, Winter, winter 2009, winter forecast, winter predictions, winter weather 2009, winter weather advisory, winter weather forecast, winter weather predictions, yahoo weather nyc, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, August 5 2009

August 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:25 AM
The tropical Atlantic may just be heating up a bit. After weeks of deep troughs producing strong shear throughout much of the tropical Atlantic thus far, a relaxation in the upper level winds is producing much more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development from the Gulf of Mexico into the central Atlantic.
An area of [...]

Tags: Africa, Alabama, Atlantic, Caribbean, Caribbean Sea, favorable conditions, Florida, Georgia, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana, Mexico, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, North Carolina, rapid development, relaxation, signs, South Carolina, Texas, time period, Tropical Atlantic, tropical cyclone development, tropical disturbances, tropical weather update, Trough, troughs, upper level winds, Virginia, warm waters, wind shear. Technical Discussions Closed

Major Changes And The Reasons Behind Them

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 AM
An extremely rare and extremely difficult forecast is evolving for the forecast area this morning. In previous posts, I stated my doubts of a heavy snowfall as a perfect track with perfect timing was going to be needed to produce a significant snowfall along the coast. The model guidance and more importantly, the atmosphere [...]

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Arctic Cold Followed By Major Winter Storm On Sunday

January 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
I wanted to make a post about the ideas I have on the potential storm on Sunday, however I saw some data on the model guidance coming in at 00Z and thought better to do some research first before posting. So off I went diving into the KU book for some additional guidance and [...]

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Non-American Models Hinting At Potential For Sunday Night

January 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:41 AM
If you only look at the GFS and it’s ensemble guidance for Sunday night and Monday morning, you might think that I either had a very bad typo in my headlines this morning or I am pulling a storm out of the air like a magician.
However, there is growing support via the UKMET, ECMWF, [...]

Tags: air mass, american models, arctic air, Atlantic, coast, cold, cold front, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, dives, ecmwf, ensembles, epo, ey, front, general idea, gfs, guidance, Gulf Stream, intensification, low, lows, magician, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, monday morning, neutral state, periods, relaxation, snowfall, Storm, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, transition, transitions, typo, ukmet, weeke, wills, Winter, winter storms. Technical Discussions Closed

The January Outlook

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area. Will the negative NAO be a major factor? Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, amplification, anomalies, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic sst, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgrt, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, Connecticut, continuation, digs, Disturbance, dominance, epo, extreme cold, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, game, games, guidance, Hartford, high, higher latitudes, Hudson Valley, ice, interaction, Islip, latitude, Long Island, low, lows, mid, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, north pole, northern asia, Ohio, pacific waters, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, relaxation, Ridge, Rockies, Scranton, sea surface temperatures, signature, slides, snow, snowfall, Southeast, Southwest, sst, state of flux, Storm, storms, stratosphere, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, troposphere, tropospheric temperatures, Trough, troughs, upper atmosphere, valleys, warm, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter events. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Thoughts On The Greenland Block Developing

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:12 AM
I don’t think there needs to be any more debate on whether the NAO will go negative or whether a block will form over Greenland. The fact is that the block has already formed over the eastern North Atlantic (think northwestern Europe) and is starting to retrograde towards Greenland.
Now what does this block [...]

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Thoughts For The Next Few Weeks

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

1:10 PM
I can bet there will be some out there screaming that winter is over and January is a warm month after the end of this up coming week. A large ridge is going to build over the eastern third of the nation while an upper low digs into Alaska shutting down the northwesterly flow [...]

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Winter Storm Discussion And Thoughts

December 8th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is a lot to discuss with this winter storm for Thursday evening through Friday and let me tell you, I had a hard time sleeping with all the thoughts running through my head. So let’s dive in and get started.

First, I think it is important to discuss the trends of the models. I’m not [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, caa, clipper, clippers, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, cold bias, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, east, East Coast, ecmwf, england, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, hard time, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, map, meteorologist, Mexico, mid, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north norther, orientation, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Reading, relaxation, reloading, Ridge, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow line, south, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thoughts running through my head, thursday night, Trenton, Trough, troughs, two areas, waa, warm, watches, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind pattern, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions 1 Comment