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Uncertainty remains as major winter storm heads east

February 4th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:43 AM
I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance. If I [...]

Arctic cold in place, snow creeping north

January 30th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:23 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning! So let’s get to it!
The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast. The [...]

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No significant changes to thoughts from this morning

January 21st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:50 PM
The current trends on the radar and the satellite basically support the forecast that I issued this morning. I don’t expect much in the way of precipitation north of central New Jersey through the immediate northwest suburbs of Philadelphia from this developing low pressure.
This evening, a new coastal low is forming off the South [...]

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Additional thoughts on tomorrow morning

January 21st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:10 AM
Premium Content
The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest [...]

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Windy conditions continue and the impact of the progressing MJO

November 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The strong low pressure system that has bombed out over the Gulf of Maine is now pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds this morning are sustained at 15 to 30 mph throughout the northern Mid Atlantic with gusts exceeding 40 mph, especially along the coast. As a result, a wind advisory is in place [...]

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Evening thoughts on Ida and potential rainfall

November 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided [...]

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Evening Thoughts- enjoy the quiet weather this evening

October 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:23 PM
The rainfall that is approaching the northern Mid Atlantic this evening is far from impressive. In fact, most of the rainfall is focused over the
Mohawk Valley and central Hudson Valleys of New York rather than the Mid Atlantic. Note that a line of showers and a few thunderstorms is forming over western/central Pennsylvania, which [...]

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Stormy pattern returns as summer comes to a close

September 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
As I look at the water vapor satellite images this morning along with the latest model guidance, I can’t help to wonder if these are future signs of what the upcoming fall and winter pattern. While the Polar Jet stream is clearly focused over Canada, the weaker influences of the pattern on the eastern [...]

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Mid Morning Thoughts-Cold fronts, disturbances, and tropical mischief

August 31st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:30 AM
This morning, a weak disturbance moving through the southern Mid Atlantic currently is just strong enough to produce a few isolated showers over southern New Jersey and clouds throughout the forecast area. This disturbance was enhanced this morning by a developing jet streak that formed over central Pennsylvania. Note to the right on the [...]

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Heavy Rain Continues Over Northwestern New Jersey

August 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

UPDATE 4:35 PM: The rainfall that has dropped south and east towards coastal New Jersey has significantly weakened over the past two hours as the upper level support exits. A few scattered showers capable of heavy downpours will continue to rotate towards the coast through the evening hours, however areas of organized rainfall is not [...]

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