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Welcome to September! For all those Basic Memberships, I will be updating your month discussion today, likely by 1 PM. The main story, the only story really is Hurricane Earl. Where will Earl go? Over New Jersey? Out to sea? Somewhere in between? Today I break down the details of Hurricane Earl and what will force Earl to the north and eventually northeast. Not a Premium Member? Get the details on Premium Membership here!
7:43 AM
I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance. If I could say that, then this forecast would be very easy. Of course, I can’t say that and this morning, while issuing the first snowfall map, I am also going to address my concerns with this storm.
To the left is the snowfall forecast I am currently going with based on all the guidance I have available and some tweaking via observations of the radar and satellite images. My original forecast for a moderate snowfall event for northeastern Pennsylvania through the New York City metropolitan area remains with generally 3 to 6 inches for New York City and 2 to 4 inches to the north over Connecticut and the Hudson Valley. The heavier precipitation and best lifting will be focused to the south as this storm is expected to really nail Washington D.C. and Baltimore with potentially over 20 inches of snow. The Philadelphia metropolitan area will come in to 6 to 12 inches of snowfall with higher amounts over southern and southeastern New Jersey of 10 to 15 inches of snow. Cape May, New Jersey is looking like the prime area to be for regional snow lovers as up to 20 inches of snow will be possible. Go figure! Who would have thought Cape May, New Jersey would end up with more snow this season than Allentown, Pennsylvania?
All guidance agrees that this storm will impact the northern Mid Atlantic from late Friday evening through Saturday evening with a heavy, wet snowfall. Winds will be rather strong, especially along the coast, with sustained winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph. Along with coastal flooding concerns, these strong winds will likely lead to significant reduction of visibility through out the region on Saturday morning, and travel is not advised.
Now, on to my concerns, and believe me I have plenty. But since I don’t think it would be wise to write 3 pages for this post, I will focus on my main concerns.
First and foremost, lets look at the recent trends on the water vapor and radar images this morning. Note that the water vapor satellite shows an impressive plume of moisture racing out of the Gulf of Mexico and from the south Pacific. I compared observed areas of actual precipitation versus the model guidance from 1 AM to 7 AM, and not one model has the development of the 700 MB moisture field nor actual precipitation field forecasted correctly. This storm is on a trend to have a wider area of influence than guidance is suggesting. Second, the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance continues to verify stronger than the previous guidance suggests. This again suggests that the models are playing catch up with the intensity of this storm at 500 MB. Note that in previous runs the 500 MB trough over the Mid Atlantic was neutral on many guidance, and now the guidance is starting to suggest a more negatively tilted trough and a closed low developing. Watch for this trend in the next 24 hours!
So what does these observations mean to the forecast? Well, my concern is that this storm is going to end up slightly further north and exit slower than currently forecasted. This concern is based on the strength of the moisture advection being observed and the strength of the actual Sub Tropical disturbance versus modeled analysis. Now, this further north idea is not one that brings heavy snowfall into northeastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, and Connecticut. I’m generally comfortable with my forecast ideas in these locations. However from the New York City metropolitan area on south through southern New Jersey, I do have my doubts on limiting the expansion of heavy snowfall into these regions.
Consider this solution, which is very much a possibility. The Sub Tropical and Polar disturbances phase on Friday 
night, the trough goes into a slightly negative position and closes off over the Delaware rather than off the Delaware coast. This would push the storm track slightly further north, roughly 15o to 100 miles southeast of Cape May, New Jersey. The position of such the surface low in combination with the developing 850 and 700 MB low would lead to the band of heavy snowfall over Baltimore to creep north up to central New Jersey down through southeastern Pennsylvania through southern New Jersey on late Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Model guidance does now portray the low slowing in exiting the Mid Atlantic until Saturday evening, just further south due to the late development of the upper low at 500 MB. The difference in this solution and the current forecasted snowfall is roughly 3 to 6 hours of intensification rate at 500 MB, which at this time period in the forecasting process is very small.
So while I do expect the majority of the heaviest snowfall to be focused over the southern and central Mid Atlantic, those over the Philadelphia metropolitan area on east through the immediate coast should not let their guard down with this storm. A slight push north combined with a slowing down of the exit of the surface low on Saturday afternoon would lead to significant higher snowfall than expected for locations shaded in red.
After this storm exits, high pressure will take hold by Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with dry conditions and near to slightly below normal temperatures. Highs will generally range from the upper 20′s to mid 30′s throughout the region.
Another potential snowfall will be possible for Tuesday night into Wednesday as another Sub Tropical disturbance races towards the Mid Atlantic coast. The currently forecasted 500 MB pattern does not suggest that the Sub Tropical disturbance will be able to intensify like this current storm, but certainly a moderate snowfall is possible for the region.
9:23 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning! So let’s get to it!
The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast. The surface low meanwhile is driving into southwestern Georgia and will move towards the North Carolina coast by this evening.
Now, for days I’ve been concerned that this snowfall was going to be further north than guidance had suggested for locations like southern New Jersey and perhaps as far north as central New Jersey and the immediate Philadelphia metropolitan area. The trends of the radar and satellite images this morning are confirming those concerns this morning. I’m still not completely comfortable with this forecast, so I’ll be launching a live coverage this afternoon to track the events of this storm.
The one feature that is drawing my attention this morning on the IR and water vapor satellite images is an area of lifting developing and expanding over central Virginia through western Virginia and another area associated with an upper level jet streak over the Ohio Valley. These areas of lifting are making a bee line for the Philadelphia metropolitan area and all of the southern half of New Jersey. Moisture at the mid levels is also racing north and is now pushing as far north as southern New England. Of course, there is the issue with the low level dry air. The amount of virga that impedes the actual snowfall due to the degree of dry air is a very important factor and is not lost on this forecaster. This is why the interior locations of northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and Connecticut have no shot here even with a more significant job north due to dew points well below zero in these locations. Now, that is some dry air!
However, the presence of such dry, cold, Arctic air is also an important ingredient for snowfall as this type of air mass supports such a high ratio of liquid to snow ranging from 1:15 to 1:30 in many locations of the Philadelphia metropolitan area and southern New Jersey. The combination of strong lifting and this very cold air mass at the surface and aloft makes for some interesting possibilities for this evening, especially along the coast. The issue at hand here is that the strong lifting over central Virginia will likely impact central and southern New Jersey and the air mass at 500 to 850 MB is still MUCH colder than even the surface temperatures, especially when one considers the marine boundary layer. The combination of these features throws in the consideration of mesoscale banding and convective snowfall that may give a heck of a surprise for some locations from central Monmouth County down to Cape May County, with more of a focus going south and east. I currently do not have this threat illustrated in the snow map because this is a wild card that certainly screams NOW-CASTING. As such, I’ll be doing live updates this afternoon and evening.
The current forecast again focuses the main event from central New Jersey to southeastern Pennsylvania and down through southern New Jersey. Without the convective elements discussed above, I currently am focusing the heaviest snowfall for extreme southern New Jersey to include Cumberland, Atlantic, and Cape May counties where 3 to 6 inches of snow will fall. Further north, generally 1 to 4 inches can be expected up through Monmouth County and including all of the Philadelphia metropolitan area. The northwestern suburbs of Philadelphia through north-central New Jersey, the five boroughs of New York City, and Long Island can expected scattered snow showers with possibly a dusting of snow. The main issue with this region is that I think any low level moisture that gets into this area will have to contend with such a dry air mass that much of the precipitation will be virga. Further north, little to no impact is expected. Just a very cold day.
This storm will exit into the Atlantic by early Sunday morning with clearing skies by sun rise over much of the region. High pressure will take hold by the afternoon and remain in control through Tuesday. A weak disturbance will follow on Wednesday with scattered rain and snow showers.
There is a lot of model agreement of the POTENTIAL for a major winter storm for Friday through Saturday morning. Looking at the preliminary data, there may be some boundary layer issues with forecasting this storm, especially along the coast. Of course, today’s events will have a significant impact on boundary layer temperatures through the week, so there is much to be decided. However, with an active Polar and Sub Tropical jet stream gearing up and a strong suggestion of a ridge axis over the central Rockies, the threat for a significant snow is very much real and will have to be monitored.
8:50 PM
The current trends on the radar and the satellite basically support the forecast that I issued this morning. I don’t expect much in the way of precipitation north of central New Jersey through the immediate northwest suburbs of Philadelphia from this developing low pressure.
This evening, a new coastal low is forming off the South Carolina/North Carolina coastal waters and is expected to move east-northeast this evening and then due east tomorrow morning. The rapidly cooling cloud tops, observed on both IR and Water Vapor satellite images this evening along the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast illustrates the transition of energy from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast. However, the 
northwesterly flow from the Polar jet stream this evening will continue to suppress the majority of the moisture with this low pressure system over the southern Mid Atlantic, thus leading to only minor impacts for tomorrow morning’s rush hour.
Temperatures at the surface up through 850 MB are already above freezing along the southeast New Jersey coast with only rain expected in these locations. Further north and west, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet is expected through tomorrow afternoon. The wintery mix will lead to some locations receiving minor accumulations with up to 2″ of snow and sleet over central New Jersey through northern and northwest suburbs of Philadelphia. Most locations however will likely remain below an inch of accumulation given the relatively warm boundary layer and high water content of the snow.
Overall, this storm is not much of a big deal for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area as far as region impacts, but this storm is a part of a step towards a much colder and more active pattern for the last week of January through much of February. The latest 12Z and 18Z guidance, especially the ECMWF, strongly suggests that the return of a cold pattern is on the way with a strong negative Arctic Oscillation and a developing negative NAO. There are also hints, with support of the MJO increasing in amplitude in stage 6 of a more favorable and active Sub Tropical jet stream developing. All factors are pointing to much more interesting times for the region.
8:10 AM
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The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest that the majority of this storm will be shunted east. Is there a threat for more snowfall than what I’m currently forecasting?
7:30 AM
6 AM Observations
The strong low pressure system that has bombed out over the Gulf of Maine is now pushing into the Canadian Maritimes. Winds this morning are sustained at 15 to 30 mph throughout the northern Mid Atlantic with gusts exceeding 40 mph, especially along the coast. As a result, a wind advisory is in place for much of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, eastern New York, and Connecticut. As the low pressure system pulls to the north and east this afternoon, the pressure gradient will slowly weaken, leading to decreasing winds by this evening. In the meantime, the strong winds from the northwest in combination with temperatures in the lower to mid 40′s over the interior and mid to upper 40′s along the coast will feel like temperatures are in the 30′s through the day. Certainly a stark change from the weather of a few days ago.
The cold air mass over the northern Mid Atlantic will not last long as the upper level pattern still does
Water Vapor-NOAA
not support a sustained cold air mass. This morning on the water vapor satellite images, a large ridge can be observed building over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. This ridge will slide to the east tonight and tomorrow, providing moderating temperatures back to normal and dry conditions through this weekend. However, once again, this pattern is still progressive in nature and thus the warm air mass over Mid Atlantic this weekend and into Monday morning will not last.
A strong cold front, developing over the Rockies this morning, will draw the first shot of strong Polar/Arctic air into the Continental United States. This cold front will move quickly and is expected to move through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas on Monday afternoon. The speed of the cold front is slightly faster on the model guidance than yesterday, however the strong agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and other guidance can not be ignored. Temperatures on Monday will peak in the morning with highs in the lower 50′s along the coast and mid to upper 40′s over the interior before falling through the 40′s throughout the region.
This cold front is expected to stall off the New Jersey coast through the Southeast and over the Gulf Coast, which will foster an environment favorable for cyclone genesis along the western Gulf Coast. Now, if a negative NAO (50/50 Upper Low) was well established and mature, then a case could be made for a low pressure track along the coast. However, no model guidance supports a clear negative NAO pattern but rather a strong upper low over central Quebec. The current teleconnections in the pattern strongly point to a phase of the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet Stream over the Mississippi Valley, which would strongly support a low pressure track from the western Gulf Coast towards the St. Lawrence River Valley. In other words, this storm is cutting towards the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday. I want to stress this is NOT bad news, but rather a step towards the pattern that will be established for the rest of December.
On Wednesday, high pressure will provide dry conditions, scattered cloud cover, and temperatures generally above normal in the 40′s and 50′s. The developing low pressure system will quickly move from the Gulf Coast towards central Pennsylvania on Thursday morning with widespread rainfall, heavy at times, for much of the northern Mid Atlantic. As the low pressure system races towards the St. Lawrence River Valley, the low pressure system will tap into the Arctic air building over western and central northern Canada and drive this cold air south towards the Plains, Great Lakes, and much of the East. This storm is the storm that forces the cold air south and east.
At this point, the pattern has made the second step towards a sustained cold pattern. The upper level low over Quebec will shift towards a position around 50N/50W, which will develop a negative NAO pattern. The ridge axis will be positioned over the west coast of Canada and building north of Alaska, providing a cross polar flow into North America. Meanwhile, the Sub Tropical jet stream will continue to undercut the ridge in the west as disturbances race towards the Gulf of Mexico. Low level cold air will continue to build into the coast on Friday with high temperatures on Friday struggling in the mid to upper 30′s over most locations, lower to mid 40′s over southern New Jersey.
Towards the extended periods, I want to caution once again on trusting the details of model guidance for this period. Remember how we got to this point over the past several weeks. Model guidance, ECMWF and GFS wavered a great deal on whether a cold pattern would even start to develop let alone become established for early December. Many meteorologist including myself, however went with the idea of a near normal to cold December due to what is developing in the stratosphere, tropical forcing, and other factors. Now, the reason why I caution on not leaning or trusting for that matter the model guidance beyond 168 hours at this point is the influences of the MJO. Remember, almost all model guidance had this MJO wave dying out and becoming a non-factor. This is clearly not the case. The MJO is at stage six, which strongly suggest a pattern change is on the way.
Now, if my thoughts are correct, the MJO is going to progress into stage 7 and 8 over the next few weeks, and if that is the case than any relaxation of a cold pattern will be muted. In stages 7, 8, and 1 of the MJO; a more El Nino like pattern is supported with more activity in the Sub Tropical jet stream and a higher potential for an eastern trough. Combine that potential with the state of the stratosphere, which strongly points to a negative AO/NAO couplet; and you can see the potential for much of December and into early January. So the point I am trying to make here is not to worry about the details for low pressure systems and even position of cold air masses for the period beyond 7 days. The models do not run the atmosphere, the processes discussed above do. Should the MJO reach stage 7 in the next week, I would increase the potential for a winter storm around the December 10th period with more potential beyond that point.
There is going to be a lot to keep an eye on over the next several weeks. Get your coffee ready!
8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided to do a comparison between the 12Z guidance of the NAM and GFS 12 hours in versus the actual 00Z observation that this guidance was suppose to forecast for. Here are the results.
NAM:
00Z Observed Radar
NAM- 00Z Precip Forecast
So here we have the observed rainfall with actual reports of moderate to heavy rainfall extending well into central Alabama this evening and the center of Ida approaching landfall this hour. The NAM guidance however is much slower and much further to the south. There is barely any hint of precipitation north of the immediate coast line of Gulf Coast. Clearly, the NAM is too far south in the expansion of precipitation further north.
GFS:
00Z Observed Radar
GFS 00Z Precip Forecast
The GFS is a bit better here with bringing the moisture further north. However, the GFS clearly has a better handle on the situation this evening than the NAM guidance 12 hours into the forecast. However, the GFS also has some issues in making the trough extending south from the eastern Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley too weak.
Water Vapor This Evening
There are some interesting observation in the water vapor satellite images this evening. For one, the amount of moisture streaming north is very impressive. Once again, only the GFS comes close in forecasting the expansion of upper level moisture at 300 MB being this expansive. However, all model fall short in this department from 500 to 850 MB. There is significant moisture streaming northward as we can see with the dark blues present in the presentation. Also, note the Ida is now taking on strong extratropical characteristics as dry air is wrapping in behind the mid level circulation. The mid level disturbance has now captured Ida and basically killing the warm-core low. By tomorrow morning, I hazard a guess that Ida will be no more but a remnant low striped of the tropical moisture and latent heat energy that made the tropical low a hurricane.
Finally, we have the two upper level disturbances. The Sub Tropical disturbance is about to interact with Ida this evening and will entrain this system completely by tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, as the trough with the Polar jet stream progresses east, a surface cold front is slowly approaching the Mid Atlantic coast. This cold front will become the focal point for a new low pressure development of the North Carolina coast by tomorrow evening. The Polar jet stream disturbance currently over the northern Plains is expected to kick this whole Sub Tropical mess into the Atlantic, NOT phase. This is key here. The 18Z GFS brought the rain with this storm further north because of a slight phase. Now, I don’t like to use the 18Z GFS as a forecast per say, but a good tool to see where guidance is trending. If the 00Z guidance starts to trend towards a phase again, many forecasters will be running from sunny and dry to a very wet Wednesday and possibly Thursday time period.
For now, given the latest observational data, I like where I stand with moisture racing north along the cold front and producing a period of rainfall along the New Jersey coast on Wednesday morning. However, I’m keeping an eye on that Polar disturbance and the development of the extratropical low pressure system off the Carolinas. Any change in the forecast, and you’ll find it here first!
9:23 PM
The rainfall that is approaching the northern Mid Atlantic this evening is far from impressive. In fact, most of the rainfall is focused over the
Radar at 9 PM
Mohawk Valley and central Hudson Valleys of New York rather than the Mid Atlantic. Note that a line of showers and a few thunderstorms is forming over western/central Pennsylvania, which is associated with the occluded/cold front over western Pennsylvania. This line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to expand on the model guidance for tomorrow morning. The latest water vapor satellite images detail the potential for heavy rainfall over the forecast area.
Note that on the satellite picture to the right that a deep channel of moisture is moving over eastern Pennsylvania,
Water Vapor This Evening
New Jersey, eastern New York, and Connecticut. As the occluded front pushes eastward into this area of moisture advection, showers will expand and intensify overnight leading to periods of heavy rainfall as the showers pass by. The water vapor satellite also shows us the potential lost in what could have a very impressive rainfall event. However, with the upper low positioned so far west, the best dynamics to enhance low and mid level lifting is clearly focused over the eastern Great Lakes and Ontario rather than the forecast area. If the upper low was slightly further to the east, the potential for a wide spread heavy rainfall would have been realized.
At any rate, the occluded front will move through the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon with showers clearing out by the evening. The threat for rain will end by Saturday night as the dry air currently over the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states lifts into the Mid Atlantic.
The forecast for next week is going to keep myself and many meteorologist on our toes. The pattern is rapidly transitioning to an active, amplified, and progressive upper level pattern with a look more from January than early October. After a brief period of ridge over the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday, the roof will cave in on Wednesday as a strong cold front slowly moves through the forecast area. The latest guidance suggests the upper low over the Southwest will send a series of disturbances along the cold front that will provide waves of rainfall for much of the Mid Atlantic. The cold front will exit off the coast by Wednesday night after a 24 hour period of moderate to heavy rainfall, amounts that could exceed an inch across the region.
Much cooler conditions are expected for the end of next week. There is some debate in the medium and long range guidance on the orientation and coverage of the trough over the Easter half of North America, however what isn’t debatable is the return of much cooler conditions. A large trough will become established over the Eastern United States while a strong ridge dominates the western coastal of Canada and much of eastern Alaska. All guidance agrees that temperatures will average well below normal by the end of the month with the potential for the first widespread frost by next weekend.
5:15 AM
As I look at the water vapor satellite images this morning along with the latest model guidance, I can’t help to wonder if these are future signs of what the 
upcoming fall and winter pattern. While the Polar Jet stream is clearly focused over Canada, the weaker influences of the pattern on the eastern United States can not be ignored. For example, a strong upper low is currently locked in and will remain to the east of the Canadian Maritimes through the next seven days, which in turn will keep surface high pressure over New England through this period. Second, a trough continues to dig and intensify over the Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley , which is pulling a significant amount of moisture northward and up the Mid Atlantic coast. This trough is also enhancing low pressure systems along a stationary off the coast of the Mid Atlantic, which will bring a higher potential for rainfall to the forecast area this week.
The upper level set up this morning will lead to a persistent easterly fetch from 700 MB to the surface over the forecast area, which will bring moisture into the coast from the At
lantic. The strong upper low over the Canadian Maritimes will support strong convergence and confluence over New England through the next seven days, which will support strong surface high pressure over New England through the forecast period. This high pressure system will interact with a developing low pressure system off the Virginia coast that will be enhanced by the weak trough digging into the Southeast. As a result, a strong easterly fetch will develop over the forecast area and bring a marine air mass into the region. An interesting observation on the recent model guidance does suggest some “ridging” into the western areas of the region, specifically from the Hudson Valley into eastern Pennsylvania, which will keep any rainfall from the coastal low at bay to the west of the Delaware River. However, along the coast, the details are a bit wetter.
The surface low will drift northward over the next several days, which will continue to enhance the pressure gradient over the northern Mid Atlantic. The lifting from the upper level trough and the mid and low level forcing will bring a threat of showers each day to the forecast area as well. There is a threat for a more steady rain along the immediate coast depending on the speed of individual mid level disturbances as well. In short, a rather raw and cool period of weather can be expected along the immediate coast due to this set up. There is no lack of moisture at the mid and upper levels through this week, which means there is potential for period of very heavy rainfall from these showers. However, the lifting with the upper level trough is not very impressive, which will lead to a more scattered nature to the precipitation.
By the end of the week, a strong disturbance will dive into the northern Plains and develop an impressive upper low over the Mississippi Valley. There is strong model support for this upper low to develop, however there is some debate on the exact placement of the upper low. First, we should acknowledge that the development of this upper low is rather unusual for this time of year. Not impossible, just not seen to this degree of strength. At any rate, the orientation and placement of this upper low is going to be key as the further west this upper low forms, the better potential the region will be under the influence a building ridge along the coast, which will lead to some pleasant weather conditions for next weekend. Of course, if the upper low should be slightly further east, than a parade of showers coming off the Atlantic can be expected along with a persistent southeast to easterly wind. So clearly, the development of the upper low will have to be monitored.
8:30 AM
This morning, a weak 
disturbance moving through the southern Mid Atlantic currently is just strong enough to produce a few isolated showers over southern New Jersey and clouds throughout the forecast area. This disturbance was enhanced this morning by a developing jet streak that formed over central Pennsylvania. Note to the right on the water vapor satellite picture that lifting is enhanced over the forecast area while air is sinking over West Virginia and the Tennessee Valley. This is due to that jet streak, which is enhancing the disturbance. I expect the upper disturbance to race to the northeast through the forecast area with initially broken to overcast cloud cover and a few isolated showers. This disturbance is rather weak overall and will not last long. I expect clouds to break up as the afternoon progresses and high pressure reestablishes itself.
Meanwhile, trouble is brewing in the Tropics once again. I have to admit that this disturbance looks better organized than Tropical Storm Danny ever 
did. I’ve been studying the satellite images through the morning hours (which is why the post is a bit later than normal) and found a strong case for anti-cyclonic outflow with this disturbance and what appears to be hints of a low level circulation on the southwestern side of the convection. Further, the thunderstorms have not been collapsing, but growing in coverage and strength through the morning. Instead of the typical pulse up and down of weak disturbances, this one is producing sustained and healthy convection. All of this points to what looks like to be the next Tropical Depression of the season and wouldn’t be surprised if we have Tropical Storm Erika in the near future.
Where this disturbance goes is a pretty well agreed upon by model guidance to the northern side or just to the north of the Windward Islands and north of the rest of the Caribbean Islands in the next 3 days. This disturbance may have eyes of the Bahamas and the eastern United States towards next weekend and will have to be monitored closely for impacts.
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