NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant rain event on the way

4:19 PM
Clouds are already building over much of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon in response to the increasing moisture from the Atlantic as the high pressure system that has produced great weather conditions the past few days now exits into the Atlantic.  A weak mid level disturbance was able to use some of this [...]

Tranquil conditions continue, but rainy weekend on the way

7:30 AM
High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies.  The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Evening Thoughts- Zeroing in on winter storm impacts

10:00 PM
My thoughts this evening on the storm for Friday night through Sunday morning has not changed much.  The overall development of the storm will depend on the development of the Polar Vortex and the interaction of the Arctic cold front with the Sub Tropical disturbance.
The initial set up for this storm on Friday afternoon [...]

Evening Thoughts- (Part 1) Saturday’s snow potential

9:11 PM
Over the past several days, there has been some excitement throughout the weather world (at least in the Mid Atlantic) for a potential snow event Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.
My thoughts the past few days focused on the boundary layer temperatures through the time which the majority of the precipitation with this low [...]

Meteorological law driving model guidance for this weekend

3:22 PM
This morning I discussed why I was hesitant to buy into a major or moderate snow producer for the northern Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.  There were two main contentions in the guidance.  The first was a lack of amplification of the ridge over the eastern Rockies, needed to support [...]

Evening Thoughts- Snow storm this weekend?

9:26 PM
This evening there is a lot of excitement in the air as the model guidance has trended towards a scenario where at least light snow is possible for the northern Mid Atlantic from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  The potential for this storm has actually be on the ECMWF and GFS for several days, [...]

Be thankful, this storm is staying east

7:57 AM
We should be thankful for many things today, and one of those things is that the upper level disturbance over the Mississippi Valley is not as strong as advertised the past few days.
As we can see with the Water Vapor Satellite picture, plenty of moisture associated with a Sub Tropical Disturbance off the Southeast [...]

Windy parade day in New York City

6:40 AM
As the coastal low explodes off the northern New England coastal waters, a tight pressure gradient continues to intensify over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
The pressure gradient will reach peak intensity late this morning before weakening under the influence of high pressure to the west.  However, in the meantime, winds will [...]

Evening Thoughts

9:30 PM
The water vapor satellite image this evening clearly shows our next developing storm over the southern Plains.  A strong ridge, centered over the Southeast coast with a ridge axis through the Tennessee Valley.  The northern Mid Atlantic remains on the relatively cool side of this ridge, however warmer air is on the way, especially [...]