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Tag Archive for 'sea surface temperatures'

Extended thoughts for November

7:56 AM
A major change in the pattern is about to take hold if stratospheric considerations are added into the equation.
Over the past several weeks, the Pacific been in a constant shift back and forth between an upper low over the Gulf of Alaska and an upper low over the Aleutian Islands.  As a result, much [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Friday, September 11 2009

4:45 AM
Hurricane Fred continues to slowly weaken over the eastern Atlantic as strong southwesterly upper level winds are producing significant shear over the tropical system.
The majority of the convection with Fred is focused over the northeastern quadrant of the storm this morning.  Fred continues to drift northward as the steering currents have become weak due [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, September 10 2009

4:45 AM
Strengthening wind shear has started to influence Hurricane Fred early this morning as the hurricane continues to weaken.  Hurricane Fred has weakened to a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds around 105 mph.  Fred is moving to the northwest at 10 mph.
Strong southwesterly and southerly upper level winds will produce strong shear over [...]

Evening Thoughts-Hurricane Fred and the heavy rain event through Saturday

9:13 PM
There is a lot of action going on that I will discuss tonight.  Specifically I will touch on the development of Hurricane Fred and what to expect with the coastal low off the Mid Atlantic coast over the next 66 hours.
Fred became a major hurricane today with sustained winds of around 115 mph, which [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Friday, August 21 2009

4:45 AM
Overnight, Hurricane Bill continued to move to the northwest around 18 to 20 mph with winds sustained at 125 mph.  Hurricane Bill will still have the potential to intensify back to category 4 strength over the next 24 to 48 hours as upper level conditions remain favorable with weak shear and sea surface temperatures [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, June 11 2009

7:55 AM
While the upper low over the central Tropical Atlantic is no more, a strong westerly shear dominates much of the region with no development expected over the next three days.  A trough over the Caribbean Sea is producing strong southwesterly shear from Cuba on through the Leeward Islands.  Meanwhile, disturbances coming off the African [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday June 10, 2009

7:30 AM
The upper low that has inhibited the development of any tropical disturbance over the Atlantic continues to weaken and move towards Europe this morning.  However, westerly shear continues to influence much of the Tropical Atlantic and will continue to do so over the next several days.  Another trough over the Caribbean this morning will [...]

Boat and beach report for Thursday, May 7, 2009

7:10 AM
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue over the coastal waters through the morning hours.  Weak high pressure will build into the coast, which will provide partly cloudy skies and dry conditions this evening through tomorrow morning.  Another strong disturbance and surface low will track over the Hudson Valley and bring periods of [...]

The January Outlook

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area.  Will the negative NAO be a major factor?  Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

Local Forecast Discussions Updated

The local forecast discussion is updated.
This morning I’m preparing for one impressive heavy rain event for the entire forecast area.  Is this the drought buster everyone has been waiting for?  I think so!  However, with the heavy rain comes the threat for significant flooding and possibly some wind damage.  Meanwhile, the pattern change will not [...]



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