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Tag Archive for 'similarity'

Threat for showers continues through the week

June 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
Another disturbance is dropping south through the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, and Long Island Sound this morning with a round of heavy rain this morning. This disturbance will continue to drop south and east and will exit the forecast area over the next 2 to 3 hours, impacting much of Connecticut and Long Island rush hour [...]

Tags: afternoon hours, air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, clouds, cloudy skies, coast, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, Connecticut, continuation, deep trough, Delaware, delaware river valley, Disturbance, downpours, east, easterly wind, england, evenings, evolution, exiting, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Hudson Valley, instability, Islip, Jets, levels of the atmosphere, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, low clouds, lows, Mets, mid, mid level, morning rush hour, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Northeast, northern, overcast, overcast skies, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, prospects, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, reloading, Ridge, Rush Hour Traffic, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, similarity, sound, soundings, south, southe, Southeast, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, troughs, tuesday afternoon, tuesday morning, valleys, visibility, warm, water vapor, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Maritime High Pressure Keeps Clouds Over Region

June 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:36 AM
Through this up coming week, the weather conditions will mirror more of late September rather than mid June as high pressure positions itself over Maine and several waves of low pressure passes to the south. Conditions like yesterday’s heavy rain event may develop for any particular afternoon where some clearing develops and mesoscale boundaries [...]

Tags: air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, Citi Field, clouds, coast, coastal waters, cold, Connecticut, Delaware, drizzle, drought, enhancement, evenings, exiting, flood, flooding, floods, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gradient, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Hudson Valley, humidity, instability, Islip, late september, layers of the atmosphere, levels of the atmosphere, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, low clouds, lows, Maine, mesoscale, mesoscale boundaries, Mets, mid, moisture, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain event, Rainfall, Reading, reloading, Scranton, short wave, showers, similarity, south, stationary front, subsidence, Summer, sun, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, travelers, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, water vapor, wave trough, waves, weather, weather conditions, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind pattern, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Evening thoughts- severe weather overview

June 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:46 PM
This morning I was preparing for an active afternoon of severe weather for the Delaware River Valley and eastern Pennsylvania with the potential for strong thunderstorms for the rest of the region. While thunderstorms did organize and push towards severe levels over much of eastern Pennsylvania, the thunderstorms weakened as they moved towards New [...]

Tags: afternoon highs, afternoon hours, air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, clouds, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, Delaware, delaware river valley, destabilization, discussion, east, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern virginia, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, low clouds, lows, Maryland, Mets, mid, morning discussions, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, northern, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pressure ridges, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, severe weather, showers, similarity, south, Storm, storms, stubburn, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, twitter, updates, valleys, Virginia, warm, weather, wednesday night, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

June 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning. The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]

Tags: air, air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, briefly, central maryland, Citi Field, city metro, clouds, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold front, colors, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, Delaware, dense fog, destabilization, discussion, dives, downburst, downpours, east, east central pennsylvania, eastern Pennsylvania, eastern virginia, elevation, elevations, evenings, exiting, ey, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, frequent lightning, front, gusts, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, impressive line, interaction, Islip, jet stream, Jets, level jet, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, low clouds, lows, map, maps, Maryland, mesoscale, metros, Mets, mid, moisture, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, occlusion, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, Rainfall, Reading, Scranton, severe weather, Shear, showers, similarity, south, spc, spike, strong wind, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, Trough, troughs, valleys, Virginia, warm, warm moist air, waves, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind gusts, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Fog will burn away, severe weather on the way

April 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 AM
The latest visible satellite image clearly shows that fog has developed throughout much of the forecast area with dense fog advisories issued for much of the region. The dense fog has developed due to a combination of lingering low level moisture from a few showers early this morning and very light winds. The good [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, boundaries, Bridgeport, canada, cards, clear skies, coast, cold, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, dense fog, Disturbance, dives, east, elevation, elevations, england, Erie, evenings, exiting, fog, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, front, gradient, great spring, Gulf of Mexico, gusts, hail, Hartford, high, interaction, isentropic, Islip, last sunday, level moisture, lifting, light winds, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, metros, Mexico, mid, mid levels, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northe, northern, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, risk, satellite, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, showers, similarity, sound, soundings, south, Southeast, southeasterly winds, spike, spring afternoon, steady rain, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Texas, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tights, tomorrow afternoon, Trenton, Trough, troughs, upper level trough, valleys, visibility, visible satellite image, warm, water vapor satellite, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

A stormy Friday leads to another great weekend of weather

March 31st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
Another stormy day is expected this Friday as the pattern repeats itself once more.
This time, the disturbance that is exiting from the southern Plains is expected to be rather strong with a well developed closed 500 MB low over the central Great Lakes by Friday afternoon. The low pressure system will become vertically [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, clearing skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, destabilization, Disturbance, early evening, east, enhancement, evening hours, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, front, frontal structure, further north, Hartford, high, High Temperatures, Islip, lifting, light winds, Long Island, low, lows, mb trough, Michigan, mid, negative tilt, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northe, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pva, Reading, s, scattered showers, Scranton, severe thunderstorms, Shear, showers, similarity, Southeast, spike, stormy day, stormy friday, sun, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tilt, Trough, troughs, vertical wind shear, warm, warm moist air, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

00Z Model Guidance Thoughts

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:28 PM
The 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS has come out for the time period of Sunday afternoon through Monday night with very similar solutions and additional support is gaining for a major snow storm for the immediate coast of the forecast area.
The latest radar trends and satellite images strongly point to a developing and intensifying [...]

Tags: 00z gfs, 00z nam, advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, band, Belmar, boundary layer, Bridgeport, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air advection, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convective, Disturbance, dives, duration, early monday morning, east, eastern connecticut, enhancement, exiting, ey, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Georgia, gfs, gradient, guidance, Hartford, interaction, Islip, lifting, light precipitation, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, Mexico, mid, mid levels, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, models, moisture, nam, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, north, Northeast, northern, Northwest, northwester, observation, observational data, observations, Pennsylvania, perfect timing, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pumps, qpf, radar, Reading, satellite, satellite images, Scranton, similarity, snow, snow storm, snowfall, snowfall totals, snows, south, Southeast, Storm, storms, suggestion, surfaces, Sussex, systems, thermal gradient, thunder, thunders, tilt, totals, Trough, troughs, upper level disturbance, valleys, waves, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Models Come Into Better Agreement This Morning On No Storm This Weekend

February 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:20 AM
Last night I discussed the fact that the 12Z ECWMF from yesterday was not a solution to be trusted given the overall state of the current atmospheric set up. There was some confusion by some about what I was saying. So let me be very detailed here.
1. Just because there is an upper low [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bport, Bucks, california coast, canada, caution, clipper, clouds, coast, confluence, confusion, Connecticut, convergence, digs, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, east, East Coast, eastern canada, eastern quebec, ecmwf, Energy, ensembles, evenings, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Gulf Coast, Hartford, high, intensification, intermountain west, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, quebec, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday evening, Scranton, showers, similarity, snow, southeastern ontario, Storm, storms, sunday morning, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, valleys, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions Closed

Winter Returns With A Fast And Active Pattern

February 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
If you want to know why the models are having a difficult time with the up coming pattern, just take a look at the water vapor satellite images. There is a train of disturbances on the way that is going to make this forecast a lot more complicated.
The overall theme has not changed [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, axis, Belmar, Bport, clouds, coast, cold, Connecticut, CONUS, depiction, Disturbance, east, ecmwf, ensembles, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, general idea, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, Hudson Valley, Islip, light rain, light snow, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, north, northeastern Pennsylvania, opinions, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, rain snow, Reading, Ridge, satellite, satellite images, saturday night, Scranton, short wave, similarity, snow, snow event, snow mix, south, Storm, storms, sunday morning, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, train, Trough, troughs, valleys, water vapor satellite, waves, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Closed

A Very Warm Periods Continues!

February 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:44 AM
All this warm weather is making me think of baseball!
After a very warm day yesterday where temperatures soared into the 50’s and even 60’s, a cold front moved through last evening to knock temperatures back to more seasonable levels. High pressure will move right over the forecast area today with clear skies and light [...]

Tags: accumulation, advection, afternoon highs, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, baseball, Belmar, Bridgeport, clear skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, east, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freezing rain, front, Hartford, high, Hudson Valley, ice, Islip, light winds, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, mb temperatures, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Northeast, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Reading, s, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, similarity, slides, southwesterly wind, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tennessee, Tennessee Valley, valleys, waa, warm, warm periods, warm sector, warm weather, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed