Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
7:40 AM
A weak disturbance is moving through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this morning with a few scattered snow flurries. No accumulation is expected, however the snow showers will likely put a nice touch to the cold conditions in place right now. Let’s be honest, what’s the point of it being cold [...]
3:22 PM
This morning I discussed why I was hesitant to buy into a major or moderate snow producer for the northern Mid Atlantic on Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. There were two main contentions in the guidance. The first was a lack of amplification of the ridge over the eastern Rockies, needed to support [...]
7:12 AM
The first Nor’ Easter to impact the northern Mid Atlantic is now exiting into the Atlantic with lingering showers and overcast conditions throughout the Mid Atlantic.
This first storm produced rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25″ to 1.06″ with Atlantic City receiving the highest recorded official rainfall. I did receive some observations in Ocean and Monmouth [...]
11:13 PM
Moderate snow has overspread the entire Philadelphia and New York City metros including much of New Jersey. Locally in Freehold, snow is falling at a moderate to heavy clip with visibility falling below a mile to 3/4 of a mile. The sky is a light pink, indicating heavy snow and the winds are picking [...]
2:54 PM
I’ve been diving into the mesoscale models the past two hours to get a handle on how and where the mesoscale forcing will set up for tonight through Monday afternoon.
The features I wanted to look at is the frontogenesis from the surface to 700 MB, the track of the 850 MB low, and [...]
11:53 AM
This is why the boundary layer is so important when forecasting for a snow storm.
Currently the coastal low pressure system, down to 996 MB, is roughly 250 to 300 miles off the VA/NC coast line. The low will continue to move northeast this afternoon and intensify. The back building seen over the forecast [...]
6:40 AM
So now that we have looked at what is going on now, let’s go forward for the rest of the today.
Temperatures will continue to fall through today with the day’s highs occurring right now. Temperatures will fall through the 20’s and 30’s through the afternoon as precipitation continues to develop over the forecast area. [...]
8:45 AM
While we keep an eye on developments along the coast, snow is beginning to fall over much of the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. The snow is currently associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes, however the coastal low, which is form off the Virginia coast, will begin to “back build” precipitation over [...]
6:35 AM
The set up that will be developing tonight through tomorrow does not support a wide spread snow storm for the forecast area and certainly not for locations along the coast. While almost the entire forecast area will see some snow, the snow will change over to rain along the coast. Why?
As I have [...]
By the way I have gotten my email account pounded this afternoon, I could already tell that the models were brewing up some mischief for this weekend. The question is if the models are on to something or if the solution we are seeing is pure fantasy.
The ECMWF is the main culprit here. Let [...]
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