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Models going warm, well maybe not

January 5th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

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8:40 AM
The medium range guidance is suggesting a pattern break down after this weekend, but the question is if this is a pattern reload or pattern collapse or even if the warm up is as strong as suggested. When the models get crazy, it’s time to go back to what really drives the weather.
– [...]

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Evening Thoughts- (Part 2) a major storm possible and models back off warm idea

December 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:20 PM
Models have started to back off the Southeast ridge, large Polar Vortex over western Canada idea as of the 12Z runs. The most notable change can be observed in the 12Z ECWMF. In the previous days, in both 00Z and 12Z guidance, the ECMWF suggested the Polar Vortex would put an end to the [...]

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Long range guidance hits a bump in the road

November 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:40 AM
I’m sure everyone has seen the extended forecast on the GFS that dumps a significant arctic air mass into the Rockies and West coast. This naturally leads to a large ridge over the eastern third of the nation and rather warm conditions. The ECMWF is not as aggressive but does have a storm track [...]

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Be thankful for the warm conditions, winter is on the way

November 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:48 PM
The relatively warm conditions that the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas have experienced and will continue to experience up until Thanksgiving, better be enjoyed to the highest degree because significant changes are on the way.
The last time I was able to post several days ago, I detailed my ideas on what to [...]

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Evening Thoughts- Nor Easter Exits and a look at this week

October 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:40 PM
The second coastal storm was a bit of a let down to what was expected as the winds were not nearly as strong as guidance had suggested, and the rainfall was not as impressive either.
Overall, the main reason why this storm did not produce the widespread rainfall that it could have potentially, was that [...]

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Mid Morning Updates- the beginning of a cool pattern

October 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:30 AM
There is plenty of moisture to the west of the Mid Atlantic, however the movement of the rainfall continues to move from southwest to northeast or basically from the Ohio Valley into western New York.
The upper level pattern this morning has a strong Southeast ridge in place with plenty of dry air over much [...]

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Volatile conditions expected this week

October 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
The atmosphere is going to be in a rapid state of change through this week as an upper low gives way to a Southeast ridge followed by a deep trough, which will bring a variety of conditions ranging from above normal temperatures and the potential of thunderstorms to temperatures falling well below normal all [...]

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Evening Thoughts

October 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:14 PM
First I want to let everyone know that the monthly news letter has been issued. Any members that didn’t get the news letter, please let me know. I am still ironing out how to get everyone the letters at the same time.
Today was a relatively quiet day for the region as high pressure built [...]

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Mild and stormy pattern begins to take hold

March 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:53 AM
The cool and quiet regime will officially come to an end in this period. A series of disturbances will begin to carve a trough that at first centered over the Tennessee Valley and end up over the Southwestern United States by early next week. A strong low pressure system and slow, moisture loaded cold [...]

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The Transition To Spring Begins

March 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:16 AM
Spring will officially begin on March 20th according to the calendar. Looks like the upper level pattern is going to actually help out in bringing Spring-like conditions to the forecast area. While the northern branch continues to sway between a negative NAO to a negative EPO pattern, the influence of the northern branch will [...]

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