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Rain and windy continues through this weekend

March 13th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:10 AM
Heavy rain and winds sustained at 15 to 25 mph have been observed since last night as the first round of heavy rain continues to move through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
A break in the heavy rainfall is expected for late this morning into the early afternoon hours as a new [...]

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Tranquil conditions continue, but rainy weekend on the way

March 9th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies. The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly [...]

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Minor snow threat for mid week, but warmer conditions are on the way!

March 1st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

6:45 AM
The water vapor this morning shows that one major storm is finally exiting and another is on the way over the southern Plains.
The winter storm over New England is the result of the lingering upper low from late weeks winter storm that interacted with another Sub Tropical disturbance over the Atlantic. This low pressure [...]

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A variety of winter weather returns for early next week

February 19th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
High pressure will continue to dominate much of the northern Mid Atlantic today through Sunday with scattered clouds and temperatures returning to near normal levels. In fact, many locations along the coast will push into the lower 40’s for highs, which will aid in slowly melting the snow pack over the region.
The next storm [...]

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00Z Models Preliminary Thoughts

February 9th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

11:05 PM
The 00Z guidance confirmed my suspicion that the 12Z guidance was not handling the development of the 700 MB upper low correctly.
At this time,this storm is clearly going to have a major impact on the entire northern Mid Atlantic. While I likely will have to adjust some features on the snowfall map to the [...]

Tags: guidance, information tomorrow, map, mesoscale dynamics, Mid Atlantic, models, New York City, northeastern Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, snowfall, southern connecticut, suspicion, tomorrow morning, two feet. Technical Discussions Closed

Models trend towards light snow for Friday

January 6th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Content
10:08 PM
The disturbance that is currently dropping light to moderate snow over the central Plains and Mid West will eventually drive towards the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow night and Friday morning.
The model guidance from the 12Z and 18Z model suites have trended towards a developing low pressure system off the New Jersey coast and [...]

Tags: air mass, arctic air, boroughs of new york, boroughs of new york city, central Plains, coastal waters, delaware river, five boroughs of new york, five boroughs of new york city, frontogenesis, Hudson Valley, levels of the atmosphere, light snow, mb trough, Model Guidance, model suites, moderate snow, snow showers, southern connecticut, upper level disturbance. Technical Discussions Closed

Coastal storm reaches peak impact today

November 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:45 AM
A lot of interesting developments happened over night as a gravity wave appears to have impacted the southern Mid Atlantic, which caused the rain shield to unexpectedly collapse overnight. However, another round of rain has finally started to move back into the coast from southern Connecticut to south-central New Jersey. Despite the unexpected relatively dry [...]

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The set up of the battle ground

August 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:15 AM
Over the next three days, the stage will be set for a battle between relatively cool, dry Canadian air to the north and west and a hot, humid, unstable tropical air mass to the south and east. Over the forecast area, a stationary boundary will waver north and south each day with various impacts [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, appellation mountains, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, eastern Pennsylvania, evening hours, forecast area, Freehold, Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, overcast skies, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rainfall, Reading, saturday morning, Scranton, short wave, southern connecticut, southern tennessee, stationary front, suburbs of philadelphia, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tropical air, unstable air mass, wave trough, western suburbs, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Evening Thoughts

July 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:58 PM
An area of low pressure is starting to develop over the Georgia and South Carolina coast this evening and will quickly move up the coast overnight to bring the forecast area a period of moderate to heavy rainfall, especially right along the coast.
Note this evening’s water vapor image. I drew the latest 500 MB [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, burlingto, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, divergence, forecast area, Freehold, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, lows, mb height, Mets, mid levels, Model Guidance, Monmouth, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, nmm, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, Scranton, southern connecticut, Southern New England, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, time note, time of year, tomorrow morning, tornado, troughs, upper level winds, virginia maryland, water vapor image, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Banding Snow And Upper Level Disturbances

February 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:20 PM
There area currently two distinct bands of heavy snow that have formed over the past hour. The first band is over central New Jersey running roughly from Trenton, New Jersey to central Monmouth County and down through eastern Burlington County of New Jersey. This band of snowfall is slowly sliding east and producing doppler [...]

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