4:45 AM

Action in the Tropical Atlantic picked up last night as Tropical Storm Fred formed off the African coast.  The developmental process of Tropical Storm Fred is rather impressive as the low level circulation with Fred was well on the way of maturing while exiting the African coast.  The outflow with Tropical Storm Fred is healthy and strong convection is surround the center for Fred this morning.

However, the future of Tropical Storm Fred is pretty much set in stone as a strong trough over the central Atlantic is producing a strong southwesterly upper level jet streak ahead of Tropical Storm Fred.  Over the next 48 hours, Tropical Storm Fred will be forced to turn to the north.  Fred is expected to move northward through Friday, however there is some question as to whether the trough actually picks Fred up or leaves Fred behind.  As a result, Tropical Storm Fred is expected to slow down and may become stationary. From that point, Fred may be able to recurve to the west by the end of this weekend as the ridge reestablishes itself over the central Atlantic and north of Fred.  At any rate, while upper level winds are currently favorable for additional development through this afternoon, by the evening hours the strengthening upper level southwesterly winds will begin to shear Tropical Storm Fred and prevent the storm from strengthening much further.

The rest of the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet as several upper lows and upper troughs continue to dominate much of the Atlantic.  No other features are expected to develop over the next 48 hours.